AfterDawn: News

Supply chains will decide the next gen format war?

The Blue-ray vs. HD-DVD, once again. I don't know if everything is already said about this - twice. AMR Research has published an article which is if not fresh, but at least a good reminder back from the VHS vs. Beta age. As most of us know the better format lost the fight. The decisive blows were delivered in non-technological fields.

DreamWorks’ recent DVD sales woes reflect the harsh supply chain dynamics of the industry. As studios ready for battle over new hardware standards, supply chain competence may make the difference.
...
The Bottom Line: With super short lifecycles, the big-studio DVD title depends on the supply chain to succeed. Less obvious is that the standards battle hinges on the same thing: demand responsiveness.
Consumer demand patterns for products like video games and home movies sell up to 80% of their total volume in the first two weeks after launch. This past weekend’s Harry Potter release is a case in point (see Nigel Montgomery’s Insight Europe column titled “If Only Harry Potter Was Delivering the PSP”). This front-end loaded demand makes distribution very difficult because of the lack of historical data for demand forecasting, and the extremely short shelf life leaves little room for quantity adjustment after the fact. Add in retailers’ practice of returning unsold product to publishers, and you have the ingredients of a hyper-supply chain.

Source: AMR Research

Written by: Lasse Penttinen @ 25 Jul 2005 12:10

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• 25 comments

• Rikoshay

  The only thing I see that could possibly lower DreamWorks' DVD-lineup is that it doesn't have any real DVD-lineup. I haven't seen a good DreamWorks film since late 2000. Maybe if they could make movies that are worth watching more than once, then maybe they can get real DVD sales. If there is a chance that Blu-ray or HD-DVD has a better system (I'm rootin' for Blu-ray), and if the quality of the info on the media is watchable, then let that be the victor.

  25.7.2005 17:05 #1

• animefan

  Well...I myself have about 500 DVDs, I used to buy 4 per paycheck. Since all of this Blue Ray/HD-DVD horseshit came along I have cut back tremendously, I may buy 1 a month. I'm waiting for the next format to emerge before I start spending again, I guess I'll have to replace my whole collection. The Manufacturers are kicking themselves in the ass behaving like this, that's why sales are down, not just for Dreamworks either. Get the format war settled, get the product out there, let's get buying!

  25.7.2005 21:02 #2

• Daggy-G

  Here's an idea ...
  Lets stick with the current DVD format Jakazz!!
  Lets not but into thier BS.
  I mean there other formats that are better than mp3 now but the world never really adopted them
  (flac,la,monkey crap audio)
  If people act ignorantly & start going out actually buying & supporting these formats then obviously we are all dooming the fates of our dvd collections along with our first bought 4.7 dvd burners & then our "hey lets sell our 4.7 burners & get Duallayer burners" I think we as people need to smartin up & not idioticly run out & but into BS that doesn't need to be on the market. Alot of people have been comparing VHS VS DVD, Saying that DVD replaced VHS & now HD-DVD is gonna replace DVD. Those are 2 different stories ... VHS was on tape & tapes wearout so we all bought DVD players. But what could HD-DVD or BluRay possibly offer that is so great besides movies being so large in size that we cant even back them up to our harddrives or DVD+R media?
  Don't buy into it ppl, make them send their crappy formated movies back to the manufacturer

  26.7.2005 07:03 #3

• animefan

  Whoa Daggy-G...you can't be serious! You'd actually want to stick with the current DVD resolution, and forego a Hi definition picture? Hope your not calling for the return of 8 track as well.

  26.7.2005 08:24 #4

• damo_red

  why replace your collection, is it worth it?
  
  i would say not, i have just about managed to replace all my VHS films with DVD becasue4 of the significatn differnce in quality. bu the difference in quality isent going to be that much differnce, only if you sit 3 feet away from you tv and iand want to check how many lines there are.
  
  just buy the new realses in this format and few of your favourites on dvd like star wars etc why spend all that money again??????? if your happy with the quality they are, which i definatly am why go and spend shit loads of money just to see it even clearer many of the old films are not going to increase in quality that much anyways becasue of the quality of the orginal recordings.
  
  just chill, dont worry about it and enjoy life LOL

  26.7.2005 08:37 #5

• GrayArea

  So, if suppy chain dynamics are going to decide the format war then what format do the prognosticators see as "winning"?
  
  Note to all you hardware/media suppliers/manufacturers. Don't y'all fret about what us consumers want. We'll just swallow whatever crap you jamb down our throats anyway, right? There's no way we would buy more product more quickly if a standard was decided based on a combination of what we want and technical merits. What a dumb idea. Sorry...

  26.7.2005 11:01 #6

• tanviper

  "Lets stick with the current DVD format Jakazz" oookkk, who here thinks Daggy-g still has over the air T.V, a pair of tinfoil covered rabbit ears, and 8 tracks?
  
  you've got to be joking right? HD video is FAR better then the best normal DVD. I can't wait for the new HD format, I'm already to go with my 7.1 speakers, HDTV, and comfy lazy boy!! BRING IT ON!!
  
  I'll only be replacing my favorit shows to the new format, and just like animefan, I've cut back my DVD purchase. I'm not going to keep buying DVD when I KNOW 6 months from now, the new format will be out. I'll just keep a "want list", and netflix then ones I want to watch.

  26.7.2005 16:05 #7

• OzMick

  Daggy-G, you've got one person agreeing with you here. In general, I like to think that I'm a fairly early adopter of new technology (I can remember paying oodles for my brand new PC DVD drive and spending days converting to DivX, then DVD burners came along and paid oodles for one of them too), but the HD-DVD and BluRay formats are not really worth creaming your pants over kiddies. And yes, in some parts of the world, we do make do with free-to-air and bunny ears. Shouldn't the IMPORTANT thing be that what the CONTENT, and not the FORMAT be the driving factor here? You can't reasonably fit a movie onto a CD. Sure, you can with DivX, but it isn't really worth the time, thus my upgrade to DVD. But if history has taught us one thing, it is that good enough is good enough.

  26.7.2005 19:38 #8

• tanviper

  OzMick, I couldn't disagree with you more. “…the HD-DVD and BluRay formats are not really worth creaming your pants over kiddies", you must not understand the benefits of HD. HD is by far, the best thing to happen to Home Theater since 5.1. The pictures are breathtaking, and the detail is amazing. The goal of most home theaters is to replicate the best sound and picture possible. HD moves us there.
  
  You could make an argument about where do we stop on 5.1, 6.1, 7.1 etc, but normal DVD vs. HD DVD? The difference is to big NOT to upgrade.
  
  I’m not saying run out and buy one or both formats; I’m personally going to wait until a duel-format DVD, or a clear winner, before I buy into it.
  
  I do have one question for you….DivX???? You bought into that junk? Why on earth would you want to buy something that would stop working in a few days, and had less features? The writing on the wall for that “format” was that only Circuit City supported it. Live and learn I guess.
  

  27.7.2005 08:05 #9

• dummy1982

  it seems to me that the best option would be some sort of Hi Def disc, but definitely must be backwards compatible with DVD. If it's not, it's a waste of time and money. I'm not buying a whole new DVD collection.

  27.7.2005 09:04 #10

• GrayArea

  tanviper- wrong DivX
  
  DivX.com/" class="korostus" target="_blank">http://www.DivX.com/
  It's an mpeg4 based compression codec. IMHO if you do the conversion right and have a good way to play back the files* it IS worth the time.
  
  *Stand-alone DVD player w/DivX support, a damn good s-video out on your video card, or a BIG honkin' monitor.

  27.7.2005 10:09 #11

• Razor89

  The current DVD standard of quality is just fine for now. Until they start having 3d pictures or some crap...DVD will be just fine right? Why have a format better than anything out there to play it?? If you plan on getting these new discs with hi def, think about the cost! You have to get a TV in hi def, a DVD player in hi def, every single little thing from the DVD player to the TV and speakers has to be hi def. I am just fine with my 5.1 surround sound and 60 inch TV. Pretty soon, the newer formats are going to leave all average people behind! Your TV will have to be so big to notice the extra quality that by the time you have the TV, you can't afford the rest!
  
  For the 7.1 audio, well....it's kinda cool I guess, but think about it. Now that I have all my 5.1 speakers wired through my attic and mounted to the ceiling, I'll have to rewire all of them, moving them and making MORE spots for other speakers, which I will also have to buy. In my opinion, they should only change the audio, if anything at all!
  
  RAZOR!!

  28.7.2005 09:15 #12

• m_towell

  For me, the quality of DVD is good enough. I only have an SD TV and I don't plan on buying an HD TV any time soon. The only time I'll buy one is when Australia drops all SD (analogue and digital) over the air signals.
  
  As for audio, I can't tell the difference between 5.1, 6.1 or 7.1. The only way to go for sound is to introduce an up and down channel too. That way we'll have TRUE surround sound

  31.7.2005 19:58 #13

• ville30

  I wonder when Finland is going HD, cause were using digital television now and HD tvs have been out for sometime now. Dont know much about buying new platfrom movies, cause i dont have a lot of DVDs. Aint gonna buy HD tvs anytime soon.

  1.8.2005 04:16 #14

• tanviper

  RAzor89,
  
  "The current DVD standard of quality is just fine for now. Until they start having 3d pictures or some crap...DVD will be just fine right? Why have a format better than anything out there to play it?? If you plan on getting these new discs with hi def, think about the cost! You have to get a TV in hi def, a DVD player in hi def, every single little thing from the DVD player to the TV and speakers has to be hi def. "
  
  I already have a Hidef TV, The new format DVD plyer will be HDMI IE:HD, I only plan on buying a select few of my current DVDs in the new format. Everything else after hat will be only on the new format,I already have all my THX cables, and an awsome 7.1 speaker system. It didn't break the bank, as I bought them at different times, and I currently enjoy HD programs off cable. When I watch a HD show like House or Gilmore Girls, the picture is stunning. I have a 36' TV, I hvae no need for a anything bigger.
  
  The point is, HD DOES make a massive difference. PERIOD. Current DVD pictures aren't bad, but HD makes the outstanding. I've always said I have no intrest in replacing my current DVD collect. I'll upgrade a few "wow" titles, and only buy in the new format from that point. Until a firm winner in the format war is here, I'll just cut back on DVD buys.

  1.8.2005 15:32 #15

• Daggy-G

  I'll stick to my earlier post, DVD is fine!! no need for buying into this stupid gimick of bluray & shit.
  When asia says "jump" (bluray) I'll Give'em the finger,
  When B Gates says "B!tch B!tch B!tch make me mo rich"
  I'll say "Eat a bowl of Sh!t"
  I mean c'mon ppl ... My cousin has a large widescreen LCD type of tv (big as 1 of those 56 inch screens i believe) & a DVD movie even compressed & backed up with dvdshrink with max sharpness option on while encoding gives the clearest & cleanest pic quality available.
  (I tested this myself with 2 movies I-ROBOT & Icredibles)
  When are u ppl gonna learn that the radiation from little monitors & tvs is bad enough but u gotta go for more, thats the story of man, always gotta have more even if it kills ya!! although a tv wont kill u, just think ... by age 50 humans loose 50% of thier vision.
  Some don't have that great of vision to begin with ... is buying into bluray & hddvd gonna make u cool? will u really care of a difference? I'm not saying that i wont buy hdvd player, But it will only be because of fuknutz like yourself that will buy into this bluray sh!t sooo much that u will eventually ruin dvd for the rest of us. Anyhow to all that support my theory "thanks" nice to know that not all are brainwashed zombies.
  Oh well I guess I better get me a copy of "Cinema Craft Encoder"
  cuz thats what will be needed to do HDDVD TO DVD conversion.
  (oh someone please invent a HDDVD to Hardrive ripper)
  Imaging how long a 25 gig movie would take to convert to dvd+r
  hmmmm 10-15 hours???? not worth it better yet a 3 hr movie at 25 gigs to DVD+R hmmm... 20-24 hrs? I guess no more backups huh?
  OH WAIT... thats why they are doing this ... DUH buy into their BS some more.
  Oh & to the B!tch F@ggot talking about me & bunny ears & 8 tracks...
  take'em & shov'em where the sun don't shine & then strech yourself abit more & shove the 8track player up there to, oh i forgot heres an 8track disc strech it some more & shove that in there too!!
  everyone else have a great day!! peace!!

  3.8.2005 02:28 #16

• tanviper

  Daggy-g
  
  I must apologize; I thought I was having an intelligent conversation with an adult, not some child. Is your typical response to someone who disagrees with you to try an insult them?
  
  Here's an idea, go home to mommy, shut up and grow up. When you can act like an adult, come back and join the conversation. The way you spell, type, and act, you can't be any older then a teenager and it shows; so sad.

  3.8.2005 10:30 #17

• dummy1982

  not to egg it on, because I know this makes me as bad as what I'm about to describe, but if you want him to grow up, maybe we should all just keep our comments about little people that feel big on the internet to ourselves... did it really require you to say something? Did it really require me to say something? NO. this just goes to show that I'm no more grown up than any of the rest of you. Ha!
  

  Tha Big Dumb Copying Guy

  3.8.2005 14:25 #18

• tanviper

  "...keep our comments about little people that feel big on the internet to ourselves".
  
  I don't recall calling him a little person, I said he must be a teenager because of the way he attacked me and other peoples view on this topic. I have no problem with holding a conversation with someone who disagrees with me, heck, I might even learn something, but to attack people and insult them because they disagree with you is wrong. It shouldn't to tolerated, and he needs to know that.
  
  I'm here to learn about new things, make new friends, and have a good time. If you think my remarks where bad, you should have seen them BEFORE I edited most of it out! =-)<jk>
  
  Really thought, people like him don’t worry me. I work with teenagers all day long, so its par the course. Most of them are good kids, but sometimes, someone seem to have something to prove for whatever reason. Goes with the job =-)

  3.8.2005 21:43 #19

• Daggy-G

  ManLiker U ungreatful he-bitch, Its called shortform for internet.
  Do u think 1 wants to sit here & explain every itty bitty detail & opinion to some1 like yourself?. I didn't really attack no1, Just stating self opinion. (as a canadian 1 is allowed 2 do that)
  U seemed to be the only 1 gettin all excited like u need a maxi change. Not that I have to explain myself to a wannabe shrink like yourself who's either new on the job or sucks at his job... But your the only 1 acting childish in this post.
  I'm 30, but the secret to staying young is to find an age u like & sticking with it!! 20's a great #

  5.8.2005 21:04 #20

• tanviper

  you just proved my point, thanks.

  6.8.2005 06:45 #21

• Daggy-G

  LOL, I just prooved that u have the IQ of a chimp, also the internet & verbal skills of a gorilla

  12.8.2005 05:17 #22

• tanviper

  The more you keep running that mouth of yours, the more you keep proving my point. Since this has gotten way off topic, I'm not going to lower myself to your childish level any longer and continue to justify your reposes with a comment. You’re just not worth the second it would take to type a response.

  12.8.2005 07:25 #23

• Daggy-G

  Why would u be lowering yourself to be @ my level, so u ask ...
  Why does 1 have to be considered to be lower by the likes of yourself? Why do u have to insist that 1 is lower than u son? Is this how u see yourself in society? to be higher? LOL
  I'm sorry I thought u had atleast the IQ of a chimp but I I was wrong. You say u work with children ... yet u can't hold down a conversation with an adult, like an adult. I hate too see how u work with our kids.
  Mr. TanViper is working with our kids ... <--- with this attitude ... YIKES!! Is that what u tell the kids that might hate u?
  That your not going to lower yourself to their childish level any longer? or that u r too good to comment on their childish issues?
  or even that they r not worth the second it would take to comment?
  please I'm begging u ... don't help our kids any longer.
  Do u know how much damage u can cause to a childs mind by thinking & teaching the way u do? So just take it like a man ...
  You can't handle adults obviously, u can't handle children obviously,
  How in your most right state of mind do u think u r gonna be able to handle the next generation & more complicated HD-DVD format? LOL
  Stick to VHS buddy

  13.8.2005 06:05 #24

• trentos

  sony will win with the ps3 and blue ray with backwards compatability. microsoft should have learnt with the xbox last time but i guess they are to arrogant and will have to learn the hard way AGAIN

  8.9.2005 01:55 #25