AfterDawn: News

75 million PS3 units sold by 2010?

With the PlayStation 3 (PS3) console only out in North America and Japan for a matter of weeks, the last thing anyone is wondering is how many units will ship by a date as far away as 2010 - except of course for a new report by Research and Markets which predicts 75 million units will have been sold by then. The prediction also hands Sony the console war but indicates that the electronics giant will not achieve nearly the dominance it did with its past efforts.

"The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsoft's Xbox 360," the report states. The report is entitled "The Transforming Global Videogames Market: The Emergence of Next Generation."



Sony does claim to have the most powerful system available to consumers but it's all that power under the hood that caused delays and has kept the price of the console very high. Nevertheless, Sony and the PlayStation trademark has a loyal fanbase and is ready to challenge both Microsoft and Nintendo in 2007 and beyond -- with many more still touting it as the favorite.

Source:
GamesInudstry.biz

Written by: James Delahunty @ 2 Jan 2007 9:43

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• 41 comments

• lecsiy

  Bullocks! I very much doubt there gonna win the consle war nor sell 75 million.
  
  Just my 2 cents!!
  
  Lecsiy

  2.1.2007 09:50 #1

• hughjars

  Guessing games and mere claims.
  
  What actual evidence is there that the PS3 is 'more powerful' than the XBox 360 for a start?
  (and in any case neither come anywhere near matching a half-respectable PC nowadays)
  
  The only certainty out of any of this marketing waffle is that PS3 isn't expected by anyone, but the Sony zealot, to outsell PS2.

  2.1.2007 10:12 #2

• bunny_c

  I think it's probably an excellent console but 600 dollars is just too much.
  people who aren't wealthy won't be able to buy , that allready cuts out a huge proportion of the gaming popultion .

  2.1.2007 10:53 #3

• sputty

  lmfao! those guys must have been smokin something good
  ps3 is destined to fail...think not?...well consider this:
  
  1. Due to the cell processor development costs for the games are far in excess of the other consoles.
  2. Lack of exclusive games (even MGS4 is rumored to be coming out on the 360 just 3 months after its debut on the ps3)
  3. Online play - many developers will be charging separate fee's for their games making the process of playing games online a hassle and expensive.
  4. If blue-ray fails the ps3 will lose its appeal as a next-gen video player, one of its key selling points
  5. Price!

  2.1.2007 11:51 #4

• lxfactor

  sputty..
  
  every possible outcome for the ps3 has already been reviewed.. don't you think if they had more of a chance to fail then succeed, they would have done something different?

  2.1.2007 12:00 #5

• CiDaemon

  @lxfactor:
  
  No. Overconfidence and naivety plague all big corporations, as you should well know. They thought they could predict the actions of the consumers, but it was obvious that they were terribly wrong, with both the Wii and 360 outselling the Ps3. Also consider that all of their exclusive content providers are also getting tired of the Sony charade, and are seriously considering moving to a more successful platform that will be a more likely candidate in the next-gen console war (i.e. 360). The Wii showed us that gameplay>graphics, the 360 showed us that improvement on a great product works fairly well, and the ps3 showed us nothing but the hard fact that $600 is too much for a buggy, unsupported console. The point is, Sony would have done something different if they expected that the ps3 would be behind both other consoles; they were just too naive to understand what the consumers really wanted, and therefore had no idea that their console was destined to fall behind.

  2.1.2007 12:50 #6

• DarkJello

  Who's selling more consoles is really a moot point right now. The Wii and PS3 are pretty much selling out, its more of an issue of how many consoles the companies can provide. So I really don't see it as an accurate assessment of how anyone is really doing at this point. The 360 got a boost in sales this Christmas from lack of PS3's and partially from the cheaper price tag, but I would assume more from the latter.
  
  I really think at least 6 months is needed before you can tell the future of a console, or any competing product for that matter.

  2.1.2007 14:12 #7

• bobiroc

  "sputty..
  
  every possible outcome for the ps3 has already been reviewed.. don't you think if they had more of a chance to fail then succeed, they would have done something different? "
  
  I agree with Sputty. Sony became very arrogant with the success of their previous consoles and played the betting game based soley on its name. They are pushing this Blu-ray very hard and it may win as the format of choice, but if it does not then Sony is in a heap of trouble. Lets hope it is not as successful as the MiniDisc or UMD movie format.

  2.1.2007 14:56 #8

• arlet_o3

  Well guys the ps3 might not do so good in sales but lets face it is a pretty powerful beast

  3.1.2007 05:28 #9

• ZippyDSM

  Sony shut up focuson games and let that win you gamedom not your arse back words BS you spew....
  
  altho I do see the PS3 being like the PS2 but for reasons they ar enot talking about.

  3.1.2007 07:47 #10

• pollution

  There are PS3's at every store I go into know for sale; The 60GB versions. No Wii's in the store though. The only way I could see them selling 75 million units of PS3's by 2010 is by a major price drop.

  3.1.2007 17:55 #11

• bobiroc

  Best Buy recently had a advertisement that they had 25 PS3's on the weekend of New Years but the Best Buy told me they were only able to give out 10 because 15 of them were reserved for people returning PS3s bought earlier because of problems. So who is doing the math of all the faulty PS3s coming back because of the problems I wonder. I don't think those should count on the number of PS3s sold.

  3.1.2007 18:29 #12

• DeadRain

  Xbox 360's won the holiday shopping spree=1.8 million sold during holidays, with the Wii coming in second with 1.5, PS3 in third with 750,000.
  

  
  

  3.1.2007 20:02 #13

• bobiroc

  

  4.1.2007 03:46 #14

• ZippyDSM

  DeadRain
  more like sold during the year *L*

  4.1.2007 06:55 #15

• ggo70

  For all the fanboys who don't have a PS3 yet and want to throw $600+ into $ony's pocket, come up to Michigan and buy one. There a lot of them sitting in the store displays. Yes, it is the most powerful console out and I would have no problem buying one after it proves what it capable of. Right now, not much, if any difference from the Xbox 360 except for Resistance - Fall of Man. Other than that, the once exclusives are coming to the Xbox 360. So, I will pass on spending over $800 on a system, extended warranty, cables to hook up to a HD TV (I still can't believe that's not included) for 1 game. Also, $ony has to fix the know problems and prove their online capabilities. Things look promising but, until then, I'm sticking with the Xbox 360 and PS2.

  6.1.2007 17:25 #16

• theoipod

  The pricing disparity between the components for the two consoles comes largely because the Sony box will contain a Blu-ray drive, which supports the new high-definition Blu-ray DVD format. That could cost $200 to $300 or more per console. The processor in the PS3 also will likely cost more
  
  from :http://news.com.com/PlayStation+3+component+prices+Why+so+high/2100-1043_3-6042226.html

  7.1.2007 01:11 #17

• bunny_c

  I've just found an article which explains the price tag of the PS3.
  from:http://dubiousquality.blogspot.com/2006/06/making-ps3.html
  
  Making the PS3
  
  Here's an excerpt from an article over at Business Week Online:
  Toshiba is gunning for an early lead in the high-stakes battle for share in the market for the newest high-definition DVD players... It's also selling the machines at a loss.
  
  That's the verdict of market research firm iSuppli, which carried out a so-called teardown of the machine, picking it apart to determine what's inside and how much it cost to build. iSuppli analyst Chris Crotty reckons the internal electronics cost about $674, bringing the total to more than $700 when components such as packaging and manufacturing are included.The players sell through retailers like Best Buy and Target for $499, leaving Toshiba with a per-unit loss of $200 or more.
  
  That's interesting, but what is most interesting is something that isn't even mentioned in the article. If an HD-DVD player costs $700 to make, what in the world does it cost to make the PS3?
  
  Here is the data we have to work with. An HD-DVD player is selling for $500. The first Blu-ray player to hit the market (made by Samsung) isn't really considered a "high-end" Blu-ray player and it's selling for $999. The PS3, which includes not only a Blu-ray drive but also the Cell processor and everything else that makes it a game machine, is selling for $599.
  
  So what exactly could the Samsung player have that the PS3 doesn't? Upconversion of standard definition DVD's, possibly, since the Samsung upconverts (over the HDMI connection only, not component) and I haven't seen that mentioned as a PS3 feature (which is a serious omission, by the way, if it's not included), but that technology has been around for several years and shouldn't be a huge cost factor. I don't see much else, though, and I seriously doubt that Samsung is selling their player at any more than a bare minimum above cost.
  
  Sony desperately needs mass consumer acceptance of Blu-ray, because they desperately need to win the format war--controlling the format would be tremendously profitable, and it's a format that could exist for decade or more. If Blu-ray loses, not only do they miss out on that revenue stream, but it could also seriously damage market share for the PS3. In other words, they've positioned themselves where they have to win.
  
  That's why I strongly believe that, at a bare minimum, the PS3 is costing Sony $900 a unit. It might well be over $1000. If an HD-DVD player is costing $700 to make, a $300 delta seems entirely reasonable. And Sony wouldn't have announced a $599 price point--which they know is absolutely wrong strategically--unless they were already losing a fortune at that price.
  
  That's why all these articles about Sony are incorrect. This isn't their strategy--it's a corner.
  
  From the long view, it looked perfect. Here's what Sony was thinking:
  1. We have an unassailable position in the video game market.
  2. We need to win the high-definition DVD format war, because it's a win that would last a decade or more.
  3. We can win #2 by making it part of #1.
  
  In the long view, that's a great strategy. And it looked like a brilliant strategy right up until the point Sony realized that the PS3 cost $300 more to build than they expected.
  
  Make no mistake: at $399, the PS3 does result in Sony winning the HD format war. Here's what Sony never considered, though: at $599, it might well lose them the format war. Again, though, they're backed into a corner--they can't absorb another $100-$200 loss per unit when they're already losing at least $300.
  
  Hardware costs have backed them into a corner. So when these Sony executives say the ridiculous things that they're saying, that's not part of a strategy--it's panic. It's feeling the wall against their back.

  7.1.2007 01:23 #18

• elasu3

  playstation 3 will easily sell 75mil.
  
  

  
  
  Get xbox360 games under 24pounds here :http://www.play-asia.com/SOap-23-83-52gn-
  

  7.1.2007 01:56 #19

• ZippyDSM

  bunny_c
  its the console game you do lose money on consoles didnt MS lose 100-300 on the Xbox?
  
  Sony is losing money on the PS3 and will for 2-3 years thats a fact but they are not really losing money they have their war chest built up from the ps2 so they are breaking even .....kinda,by 010 I see the PS3 going "main stream" well it should be in enough houses by then to be "main stream",point is this is the game you play when you center around power.
  
  elasu3
  by 015 sure but not by 010
  

  
  
  FIGHT THE M.A.F.I.A.A.
  Sony has declared war on importers the consumer will be next with CD's,Videos/Games not far behind that....boycott SONY!
  http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/8062.cfm

  7.1.2007 05:55 #20

• bunny_c

  Zippy,here does the profit come from then.
  
  

  
  
  
  Ipod issues?
  http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/346962

  7.1.2007 11:44 #21

• ZippyDSM

  Originally posted by bunny_c:Zippy,here does the profit come from then.Merchandising and old war chests in MS and sonys case they can pull money in from other departments.
  
  its a money game if played right gets them enough money to match the bleeding after awhile the bleeding stops or just trickles.
  

  
  
  FIGHT THE M.A.F.I.A.A.
  Sony has declared war on importers the consumer will be next with CD's,Videos/Games not far behind that....boycott SONY!
  http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/8062.cfm

  7.1.2007 17:27 #22

• iracekx

  I won't buy another Sony product as long as I Live! I have had nothing but problems dealing with Sony I will never recommend their product or sell their product. I will tell customers to buy some other brand.

  7.1.2007 19:55 #23

• xzoxzo

  sony has no chance in sellin 75 mill of ps3s cause 4 years from now hopefully microsoft will come out with another xbox cause i know i wont be buying a ps3 they around 600$$ and thats with out game ect if i do buy one i will just burn as many games as i can to prove a point. cheer =)

  7.1.2007 20:49 #24

• IguanaC64

  Sony should have leveraged technology better by providing a cheap DVD drive (in a form factor like laptop optical drives) and making a Blu-ray reader something you could upgrade to later. This would also let consumers easily repair their optical drive which is the first thing that goes out on these systems in most cases. Buying this system as a movie player is just throwing your $$$ down the trash can when in < 2 years we'll have sub-$100 players. I made this mistake with my first PS2.
  
  $600 for a video game system is too much of a pill to swallow for at least 75% of gamers...and it'll be at least a couple of years before they are sub-$400...and even that is more than I'm willing to choke up for a video game system.
  
  Nintendo's got it right...this time.

  8.1.2007 06:54 #25

• ZippyDSM

  Originally posted by IguanaC64:Sony should have leveraged technology better by providing a cheap DVD drive (in a form factor like laptop optical drives) and making a Blu-ray reader something you could upgrade to later. This would also let consumers easily repair their optical drive which is the first thing that goes out on these systems in most cases. Buying this system as a movie player is just throwing your $$$ down the trash can when in < 2 years we'll have sub-$100 players. I made this mistake with my first PS2.
  
  $600 for a video game system is too much of a pill to swallow for at least 75% of gamers...and it'll be at least a couple of years before they are sub-$400...and even that is more than I'm willing to choke up for a video game system.
  
  Nintendo's got it right...this time.you know Sony would ahve won off the bat if they did a few thigns
  
  PS3 Core 300-380$(BT,ethernet,USB,PSX con/mem port adapter in box)
  HDMI port 150-200$ (with HDMI cables)
  HD 50-80$ (20GB-80GB preloaded for PS3)
  WIFI port 50$
  Multi Card reader 50$
  
  If they made the PS3 adapteable to the consumer they would have won from the start instead of trying to catch up in 2-4 years.
  
  I kinda like MS's plan release the 360 in created models once every 2ish years with new mobo/cpu if needed,lager HD and then finally HDDVD doing it like this they never have to drop the price!
  
  
  

  
  
  FIGHT THE M.A.F.I.A.A.
  Sony has declared war on importers the consumer will be next with CD's,Videos/Games not far behind that....boycott SONY!
  http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/8062.cfm

  9.1.2007 14:23 #26

• bunny_c

  Originally posted by bunny_c:Zippy,here does the profit come from then.
  
  Merchandising and old war chests in MS and sonys case they can pull money in from other departments.
  
  its a money game if played right gets them enough money to match the bleeding after awhile the bleeding stops or just trickles.
  
  
  SO,basically it's all about marketing!
  
  
  

  
  
  
  Ipod issues?
  http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/346962

  9.1.2007 22:43 #27

• ZippyDSM

  Originally posted by bunny_c: Originally posted by bunny_c:Zippy,here does the profit come from then.
  
  Merchandising and old war chests in MS and sonys case they can pull money in from other departments.
  
  its a money game if played right gets them enough money to match the bleeding after awhile the bleeding stops or just trickles.
  
  
  SO,basically it's all about marketing!Ya,sadly its like anything corperate they can sale crap and make money off it by making up stuff as they go the media mafia is currently trying to push krap some understand the dangers of it some don't,if you buy new retail priced items be it music/movies/games/programs and they ring hollow to what has been or could been made then you and your kin(shepple) are feeding the tyrannical beast,and slowly it even corrupts retail chains and destroying thier ability to sale used items (most nation wide retail chains have given up on saling used PC games) just think in 2 or 4 years you cant buy used movies or games of older systems becuse they to are easy to copy and only NEW and "refurbished" items at a mark up will be sold.
  
  sad days are coming they cant make sellign of used illegal but they can buy them out and make them against store policies....
  
  First it was can not return suxy game now its cant buy a suxy PC game cheaply,soon it will be cant sale used DVDs they can be copied to easily then in in 011 or so they will ban the sale of used PSX/PS2/Xbox/ games because they are to easy to copy. of coarse non regional chains will be unaffected...for awhile....
  

  
  
  FIGHT THE M.A.F.I.A.A.
  Sony has declared war on importers the consumer will be next with CD's,Videos/Games not far behind that....boycott SONY!
  http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/8062.cfm

  9.1.2007 23:04 #28

• hughjars

  One thing I don't get, how come people are assuming and calculating 'internal' prices as if they know what the manufacturers actually pay for those components?
  
  We simply have no clue how much the components cost each producer so everything is surely just guesswork (in other words most likely just PR & spin to encourage you to cooooo and go all goooooey over what an amazing bargain you're - supposedly - getting), even when it is so-called 'industry insiders' talking?

  10.1.2007 05:36 #29

• ZippyDSM

  hughjars
  we know enough to estimate with the information we have,but the last piece of the puzzle is the cheap china factory shopping coperations do to save money ,we might not know th real price but we know the general going rate for them so either they are breaking even on the PS3 ot loseing money on it,in any case one fact about the PS3 is a fact its to pricey and they would have done better to sell it in parts, making a core unit 250-350 would have let them sold more units and put a strangle hold on the market from day one.

  10.1.2007 07:42 #30

• ZippyDSM

  hughjars
  BTW my price suggestions comes down to breaking the PS3 into more easily distributed upgradeable parts,I mean really if the "core" system was 350 with a 20GB HD had BT,USB,ethernet, could play BR games and movies....they would saturate the playing filed with BR drives furthering their goals on BR selling more BR movies its win win win win fcking WIN yet....they want to push a 600$ all in one that will take 1 or 3 years to get off the ground while jeopardizing BR movies,its almsot like Sony is sabotaging BR for movies.

  10.1.2007 08:04 #31

• hughjars

  I think you're probably right Zippy, the Microsoft method (or something closer to it) is probably the superior means of getting that 'win'......and if, for once, genuine up-gradability were to come who could bash that?
  
  I've said for a while tho that I don't reckon the Microsoft strategy is to actually 'win' this time, I reckon they'd be happy to get it now, of course, but I still see the idea as to whittle the leading position away from Sony who have gone from bigger than the rest combined to merely biggest minority.
  
  I do find these sales guessing games a bit silly though.
  
  Games shipped are absolutely not the same as games sold and US people are almost all telling tales of plenty of PS3 stocks sitting on the shelves.

  10.1.2007 08:42 #32

• ZippyDSM

  hughjars
  well win or something like it,the PS3 msot liely will win regardless of what they will do,it jsut annoys me to no end that they cant be better for themselfs and the public if sony took a more reasonable plan theres no question in my lil skull they and BR would win and NAO (pronuced Nyyywooo) *L*
  
  as for MS they are just as lost mis matched hodge podge franienstine of a console,the new revision looks good but I want "NON" rumors over the new HD frankly HD DVD can wait but at this point and time something more than the 360s 16GB HD(after OS) for stuff,since you either play or download having a larger storage unit mans you don't have to try and retry stuff as much,have they fixed that in the 360 the download or play thing?
  
  the 360 s looking p but tis still a mess the PS3 is a mess the WII is so so mainly because Zelda twp is not prefect its good...but...I am seeing a underdeveloped game trend a coming to Nintendo if it sticks to the WII..the controller revolution they brought will end up a gimmick.... and not much better off than the GC....
  
  forget the brands they have lead me astray one to many times,I want quality fun games,none seem to offer them in a quantity worth shelling out 300+ for......
  

  10.1.2007 09:09 #33

• hughjars

  Quote:none seem to offer them in a quantity worth shelling out 300+ for...... - My thoughts exactly.
  
  £300 for the Xbox 360, £450 for the PS3 or £300 for an Intel Core 2 Duo 6700.
  
  I know where my money is going.

  10.1.2007 12:14 #34

• ZippyDSM

  Quote:[quote]none seem to offer them in a quantity worth shelling out 300+ for...... - My thoughts exactly.
  
  £300 for the Xbox 360, £450 for the PS3 or £300 for an Intel Core 2 Duo 6700.
  
  I know where my money is going.[/quote]
  I like the WII mroe than the 360 but ,right now this min they offer the same "funness" so I am working on my comp and just keeping an eye on the console "game".
  

  
  
  FIGHT THE M.A.F.I.A.A.
  Sony has declared war on importers the consumer will be next with CD's,Videos/Games not far behind that....boycott SONY!
  http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/8062.cfm

  10.1.2007 13:36 #35

• solarf

  I dont think they will reach their goal unless there is a price drop,but that wont happen till they make a fortune off there first party games.

  30.1.2007 08:33 #36

• ZippyDSM

  there are already rumors of a 150 EU price drop.

  30.1.2007 08:58 #37

• hughjars

  Already?!
  
  You heard that too zippy? ;)
  
  It has to be asked tho, if they can't shift them at a sale price of £169/$329/€253 - or even the regular £200/$412/€316 in Japan what makes them think they'll go for dfar more than that here?

  30.1.2007 09:17 #38

• ZippyDSM

  hughjars
  dont forget the vat hike ,so 500 EU is reasoable even 520EU but 6XX eu? who the wholly fudge decided that price?
  
  if its the retail stores then ya I can see wanting to make a profit off lose of shelf space on pushing slow o move products,if its sony it just shows they have no idea what they are doing anymore.
  
  its like the US goverment in the past 6 or so years we have great PR (Propaganda Resources) and stupid CEOs and middle management....

  30.1.2007 09:27 #39

• hughjars

  Yeah ok, all over Europe we have VAT (ranging IIRC from 16% in Germany to 21% in the Republic of Ireland - it's 17.5% here in the UK).
  
  But then the US has sales taxes too - local state taxes as well as federal taxes, right?

  30.1.2007 09:32 #40

• ZippyDSM

  Originally posted by hughjars:Yeah ok, all over Europe we have VAT (ranging IIRC from 16% in Germany to 21% in the Republic of Ireland - it's 17.5% here in the UK).
  
  But then the US has sales taxes too - local state taxes as well as federal taxes, right?Fed tax is not on everything a PS3 would be + 8-15% tax depending on state.
  

  
  
  FIGHT THE M.A.F.I.A.A.
  Sony has declared war on importers the consumer will be next with CD's,Videos/Games not far behind that....boycott SONY!
  http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/8062.cfm

  30.1.2007 09:44 #41