McQuivey thinks the "dead end" can get here as soon as 2008 even though the paid download market continues to grow. He expects sales to increase from $98 million USD to $279 million USD by the end of this year but he sees growth slowing to a crawl after that. He attributes all the growth to early-adopters and points out that only 9 percent of adults have paid for any type of video content online and that the tail end of early adopter sales is approaching. "Free TV streams will steal eyeshare back from paid downloads," says the report.
If this report is to be believed then Amazon Unbox, MovieLink and other paid programs are in trouble. iTunes will hit the "dead end" later due to its postition as #1 in paid downloads according to the report.
The group also specifically notes Joost as a major threat to the whole concept of paid downloads. Joost has recently raised $45 million USD and gotten content from CBS and Viacom among others. Forrester questions: "With all the top networks putting up free content at such high quality, why would people pay for downloads?"
You must admit, they have a point.
Source:
Arstechnica
Written by: Andre Yoskowitz @ 14 May 2007 13:42
