AfterDawn: News

Industry analyst still predicts Blu-ray win in format war

Despite Paramount and Dreamworks SKG deciding to back HD DVD exclusively, research firm Understanding & Solutions still believes Blu-ray Disc will prove victorious in the high-definition format war/

“The weight of industry support is still very much behind Blu-ray,” said U&S director Jim Bottoms, preceding his arguments by noting that U&S remains a private entity, not financially benefiting from either side. “Fifty-eight percent of the high-def market comes from Blu-ray-exclusive business,” based on first quarter video shipments, he said.



Bottoms broke down studio market share within Blu-ray-exclusive studios, showing that Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment commands a 14% piece; 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, 16%; Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, 18%; MGM Home Entertainment, 3%; and Lionsgate, 7%.

The HD DVD-only side accounts for 23% of the market, including 10% from Universal Studios Home Entertainment share and 13% from Paramount Home Entertainment. Warner Home Video, producing in both HD DVD and Blu-ray, accounts for 19% of the high-def market.

“There is a lot of confusion with consumers over high-def in general,” Bottoms said. “I heard from a consumer, ‘I was going to buy an HDTV screen, but now I’m going to buy a Blu-ray screen. That is quite typical of the confusion that exists. But the important take away is that there is great opportunity [with high-def], but there still needs to be some work done to turn this all into a reality.”

Source: Video Business

Written by: Rich Fiscus @ 23 Aug 2007 5:54

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• Unfocused

  This week, Blu Ray, next week HD, the week after Blu Ray. Sales figures from one don't count as legitimate data in this "war." The sales amounts that happen in one week is not going to determine the winner.

  23.8.2007 06:20 #1

• hughjars

  Who paid for this?
  
  Cos that has got to be mightily relevant to this spin & they sure as hell don't undertake this kind of 'research & publish this type of stuff for free.
  
  Before Paramount's announcement a Blu-Ray supporter had access to 62% of all available high def titles, while a HD DVD supporter had access to 61%.
  
  After the Viacom/Paramount/Dreamworks/MTV Film/Nickelodeon announcement the HD DVD supporter still has 61% - that hasn't changed, but the Blu-Ray supporter now has only 55%.
  
  This data does not take imports into account or odd disks distributed in some other countries (HD DVD's Studio Canal releases aren't there in those stats for instance). The figures are based on:
  
  http://www.blu-raystats.com/index.php
  
  http://hddvdstats.com/index.php
  
  Which seems to cover American releases only.
  
  Neither owner gives up on half of all available titles.
  
  The HD DVD supporter misses out on 39% while the Blu-Ray owner now misses out on 45%.
  
  If you take into account that 60 of those supposedly 'exclusive' Blu-ray titles are in fact available on HD DVD internationally
  (which thanks to HD DVD being region-free everytime you can buy without worry)
  it turns out Blu-ray currently has in fact only 110 or so exclusive titles
  (and that was before this move by Viacom/Paramount/MTV Film/Dreamworks/Nickelodeon).
  
  Now that Viacom/Paramount/MTV Film/Dreamworks/Nickelodeon have decided so decisively Paramount will begin to ramp up production which will actually end up making a much bigger difference than before or is visible in those numbers too
  (and so will off-set the return of Fox to Blu-ray disc production.
  
  ......cos Fox have been nowhere to be seen until their announcement the day after Paramount spoke - and have yet to deliver into the market anything tangible).
  
  Where are all those people who used to crowd these boards proclaiming content was everything, huh?
  
  ......expect more excellent HD DVD news at CEDIA in a couple of weeks.

  23.8.2007 06:46 #2

• varikelo

  To be honest, I think the coin still on the air. I think this X-mas season will be crucial. BR still has more movie studios support, but, with the new batch of cheaper HD DVD players on the way and the momentum of the Viacom change anything can happen…
  
  To me, both camps should start scheduling more blockbuster releases. Spielberg already said he supports BR, but ‘till where I know, he only has approved the release of Close Encounters. To bad for him the Indiana Jones trilogy was released by Paramount!
  
  The HD DVD camp still has a lot to do yet. They need to take full advantage of this momentum.
  
  The next weeks gonna be real interesting….

  23.8.2007 07:26 #3

• hughjars

  Originally posted by varikelo: Spielberg already said he supports BR - S'funny cos I have read him saying that he wants his movies out on both high def formats. Not just one alone.
  
  Direct whole quotes don't exactly seem to be so thick on the ground on this one tho.
  
  I think the spinmeisters have been at this one for some time......which is pretty absurd given that they are all available on DVD but little or nothing in high def.
  
  It's ridiculous, I mean, is there anything else not actually out & available that we could argue the toss about? ;)

  23.8.2007 09:31 #4

• dblbogey7

  Originally posted by hughjars: Where are all those people who used to crowd these boards proclaiming content was everything, huh?Content is still everything hughjars. That's why the Viacom announcement is such a big deal. Now that the content advantage has shifted to HD DVD's favor there are two possible scenarios in my view:
  
  1. More studios follow suit and that signals the end for BluRay relegating it to a niche. Now HDM's flag bearer HD DVD can concentrate on mass adoption and take on the real competition - SD DVD. This is where content AND price will both play a big role.
  
  2. No more studios switch allegiances and were stuck with a situation where both formats survive in a stalemate. This situation most likely will delay mass adoption of HDM.
  
  This is my take on things: Content will determine the winner of HD DVD vs BluRay. Content PLUS Price will determine if HDM will attain mass adoption and supplant SD DVD.
  
  But who knows - I may be wrong.

  23.8.2007 10:48 #5

• duckNrun

  Third possibility:
  
  Both formats endure in the same way that +/- discs have but dual format players take control of the market essentially ending the format war. Studios produce movies in whatever format they choose and consumers don't have to decide between formats because their players do both.
  
  This is actually the ending I'm looking to.

  23.8.2007 11:45 #6

• NexGen76

  Quote:Warner Home Video, producing in both HD DVD and Blu-ray, accounts for 19% of the high-def market.If i was BDA i really would try to lockup Warner because this would make things that much harder for HD-DVD.As i said before its content that going to decide to winner of the format war.Before you sale player's you got to have content first that appeal to the buyer.

  23.8.2007 13:44 #7

• ematrix

  Forth possibility:
  
  Both formats endure this HD war until both loose, while SD DVD will continue to be the prefered format worldwide. This is actually the future ending, as 99% of consumers don't care for Blu-Ray nor HD-DVD.

  23.8.2007 13:52 #8

• bobwheel2

  I think the war between both formats have taken too long now & the publi don't really care. I hope both formats get thier fingers burnt as I think the Hard-drive will be the winner. everything from games consols to dvd recorders & pc's boast large hard-drives plus with the added option to greatly increase capacity with a usb external hard drive so who needs these fancy blue ray or hd dvd disks which are also to expensive to buy, no the hard-driveto me will be the winner for the majority of the public.

  23.8.2007 14:54 #9

• Pop_Smith

  This is a funky article, I like how Jim Bottoms claims that Blu-Ray (this week) is going to win. 58% = a win? Yeah..........Right, next week HD DVD will gain another supporter (or someone will drop out of Blu-Ray and HD DVD altogether) and the week after its Blu-Ray's turn again for some "Good Fortune".
  
  If the hardware and software sales were sided to one side, not counting the PS3 since the HD DVD add-on isn't counted and the PS3 isn't a "true" Blu-Ray player its a video game console, with them having a vast majority something like 75% or higher, then they might be able to say "We think we are going to win".
  
  But, even with 75% of the market you don't know what the competition has planned. Something could potentially wipe out your side even if you have 75%+ of the market.
  
  Heck, I am betting on some not-yet-announced format that will come out soon after, or at the tail end, of this format war and wipe out both HD DVD and Blu-Ray.
  
  Peace

  23.8.2007 16:35 #10

• spydah

  I think if more of these companies look into what bobwheel2 said they would rethink their strategies because people want DVR features at home now more then before. DVR it will over take a HD - Blu DVD's anyday because you can do what you want with the movie its there to play with and not like scratching DVD's that you paid x amount for Hard drive data will be there unless your box or drive is messed up. You have your collection you can view any time it would be kid friendly as long as its a setting so they dont delete your movies and its all good from there. Then you can play all the formats all you like and be stress free.

  23.8.2007 17:28 #11

• ghost.x74

  As soon as the PS3 is modded, I think its sales will hit the roof. Then I believe that HD will be a distant memory.........kinda like betamax.

  24.8.2007 02:21 #12

• emugamer

  Originally posted by ghost.x74: As soon as the PS3 is modded, I think its sales will hit the roof. Then I believe that HD will be a distant memory.........kinda like betamax.As soon as the PS3 is modded, SWAT teams will gas homes, blindfold and and execute modders. Black Hawks have been secured by the FBI anti-piracy division for 2008, in anticipation of this evil, corrupting element.

  24.8.2007 08:27 #13

• ghost.x74

  Quote:Originally posted by ghost.x74: As soon as the PS3 is modded, I think its sales will hit the roof. Then I believe that HD will be a distant memory.........kinda like betamax.As soon as the PS3 is modded, SWAT teams will gas homes, blindfold and and execute modders. Black Hawks have been secured by the FBI anti-piracy division for 2008, in anticipation of this evil, corrupting element.LOL..........Yeah........screw those damn Al-Qaeda modders. :-)

  24.8.2007 15:41 #14

• tony2toes

  Originally posted by ghost.x74: As soon as the PS3 is modded, I think its sales will hit the roof. Then I believe that HD will be a distant memory.........kinda like betamax.I doubt it, how many people do you know that are willing to risk bricking a 600 dollar system?

  24.8.2007 18:30 #15

• plazma247

  haha
  
  'I was going to buy an HDTV screen, but now I’m going to buy a Blu-ray screen'
  
  Where can i get a blu-ray screen, i want one that does ten to eighty c and has a hmpi interface.
  
  It would also be good if it had an output on it so i can record the bluray picture to my VHS so i can make HD VHS tapes.
  
  Before u start im not inept, im taking the pi55.

  25.8.2007 04:09 #16

• emugamer

  Originally posted by plazma247: haha
  
  'I was going to buy an HDTV screen, but now I’m going to buy a Blu-ray screen'
  
  Where can i get a blu-ray screen, i want one that does ten to eighty c and has a hmpi interface.
  
  It would also be good if it had an output on it so i can record the bluray picture to my VHS so i can make HD VHS tapes.
  
  Before u start im not inept, im taking the pi55.Yeah, and I hear blue rays are better for your eyes :-P

  25.8.2007 04:15 #17

• ghost.x74

  Quote:Originally posted by ghost.x74: As soon as the PS3 is modded, I think its sales will hit the roof. Then I believe that HD will be a distant memory.........kinda like betamax.I doubt it, how many people do you know that are willing to risk bricking a 600 dollar system?All of the people who have had their other consoles modded to date without any problems will (myself included).
  
  The only difference will be the price but this does not give me any reason to fear that the result will be any different.

  25.8.2007 05:13 #18

• error5

  Originally posted by dblbogey7: Content is still everything hughjars. That's why the Viacom announcement is such a big deal. Now that the content advantage has shifted to HD DVD's favor there are two possible scenarios in my view:
  
  1. More studios follow suit and that signals the end for BluRay relegating it to a niche. Now HDM's flag bearer HD DVD can concentrate on mass adoption and take on the real competition - SD DVD. This is where content AND price will both play a big role.
  
  2. No more studios switch allegiances and were stuck with a situation where both formats survive in a stalemate. This situation most likely will delay mass adoption of HDM.
  
  This is my take on things: Content will determine the winner of HD DVD vs BluRay. Content PLUS Price will determine if HDM will attain mass adoption and supplant SD DVD.
  
  But who knows - I may be wrong.I think you're mostly right dblbogey7. Content and studio support will have a lot to do with the outcome. I also agree with duckNrun that part of the outcome could depend on dual format players especially if they start coming in at sub $300 price points.

  25.8.2007 05:43 #19

• borhan9

  They can predict all they want however i still say it is too early for us to know which format is going to win this battle.

  31.8.2007 03:53 #20