AfterDawn: News

THX chief says war victory came too late for Blu-ray

THX chief scientist Laurie Fincham has been quoted as saying that despite its victory over HD DVD, Blu-ray will not become the next standard in the home entertainment market.

"Personally, I think it's too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?" Fincham is quoted in the Home Cinema Choice Magazine.



"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."

"By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format," he concluded.


Written by: Andre Yoskowitz @ 25 Mar 2008 18:21

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• 72 comments

• ceno82

  I couldn't agree more

  25.3.2008 18:27 #1

• lecsiy

  Quote:By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards.Thats a pretty big assumption. Especially when you look at the momentum blu rays got recently. I'd say personally by the time bluray has found mass market and become the standard. Then we might be looking at something like this.

  25.3.2008 18:37 #2

• Pop_Smith

  I'd say I partially agree with that. Although big flash drives are pretty expensive at the moment, the cheapest I could find a 32GB Corsair Flash Voyager is $149, the price may come down if consumers want their videos on them.
  
  DVD is still king for now, in order for something other than Blu-Ray to take over something with a lot of momentum is going to have to come out in the next 1-3 years.
  
  Peace

  25.3.2008 18:39 #3

• locobrown

  He could have a point. I'm tired of backing up my dvds, keeping the originals away from the hands of my 3 year old sister. 128GB flash is something to ponder upon. Rip all of my dvd collection and just plugin the flash drive into a player, but I have my xbox 1 that I use accordingly. No more discs but, we would still require a recorded copy just in case the flash drive or hard drive crashes so in a sense I don't think discs will be eliminated completely.

  25.3.2008 18:42 #4

• vinny13

  I prefer discs because they are cheaper in comparison to size and are just as reliable as long as you take care of them... Plus Flash cards are easier to lose because they are so much smaller. That sounds like a stupid reason but its true. One second its on the couch, the next second it's in the couch.

  25.3.2008 19:18 #5

• iluvendo

  128 Gb flash players are only an example. Something else better may be what takes over.BD won a Phyrric victory (IMHO).

  25.3.2008 19:40 #6

• Xian

  The players will have to come down in price to get mass market appeal. The biggest limitation to me is if I buy a Blu-Ray it only plays on my PS3, where if I buy a DVD it will play on any player in my house. Most of what I purchase is children's movies since they will watch them over and over where it's the rare movie I watch more than once.

  25.3.2008 19:51 #7

• jrosado5

  If you look at recent sales trends, HD DVDs are beating Blu_ray 2 to 1, although the clearance prices of HD DVDs are the reason. Blu-Rays biggest challenge is their price! Consumers will not spend $25-$35 for a movie they can own for $14.99 at Walmart! Unless Blu_ray lowers the price point to the $19.99 New Release range soon, they are settingthemselves up for a defeat via another format! Upconverting DVD Players just do a great enough job to keep the masses happy!

  25.3.2008 20:02 #8

• iluvendo

  Originally posted by jrosado5: If you look at recent sales trends, HD DVDs are beating Blu_ray 2 to 1, although the clearance prices of HD DVDs are the reason. Blu-Rays biggest challenge is their price! Consumers will not spend $25-$35 for a movie they can own for $14.99 at Walmart! Unless Blu_ray lowers the price point to the $19.99 New Release range soon, they are settingthemselves up for a defeat via another format! Quote:Upconverting DVD Players just do a great enough job to keep the masses happy!
  I don't think the warriors of the high def battle saw that one coming.
  

  If it wasn't for bad luck, I'd have no luck!
  "The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
  Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition

  25.3.2008 20:31 #9

• sgriesch

  Go flash drives. This is a step in the right direction. As, I have been saying since 2004, the way of entertainment is changing. The idea of buying a new electronic box to add to the entertainment system is over. Eventually, it will be just a computer and monitor (and maybe speakers). The movies, music, and games will be bought as files. The computer will have a built-in powered audio signal (no receiver needed for home theater sound). This could end the need for format wars, and lessen the amount of space (not to mention wires) needed to set up your system. It's idealistic, but not too far off as media center computers are already out currently.

  25.3.2008 20:37 #10

• MNPhoto

  I couldn't agree more. With all of the different options now available to people, HD really only had one chance at becoming the successor to SD DVD and the format war destroyed that chance. Even without the format war it would have been tough going against the massively dominant SD DVD format. Lets face it SD DVD is by far the most successful format that has ever existed. It now has a library of over 70,000 titles and most of them can be had for super cheap. Most people are perfectly content with the quality of SD DVD or SD DVD upconverted on HD sets. Toshiba's upcoming Super upconvertion is only going to make the difference between HD and SD that much more insignificant to the general population.
  
  The bottom line is alot of people have pretty significant SD DVD collections or at least own the titles that are most important to them and getting those people to adopt a new format where they have to rebuy those titles is a hard sell indeed. Most people who are buying HD sets arent even doing so to get HD content, they are simply buying the HD sets because they are far smaller and far better looking than old school sets. I have a buddy of mine who works at best buy and he estimated that only 1 in 3 people who aare buying HD sets are actively seeking out HD content to go with that set.
  
  Sorry Blu Ray but there is just to much going against you. You will always remain a niche format in SD DVD's shadow. Even the iTunes movie store is going to obliterate your numbers but what do you expect when you have to pay 30 bucks for a 10 year old catalog title.

  25.3.2008 20:44 #11

• rlessmue

  I agree...and disagree.
  If you burn to a disc...it's "set" in place. (Cost $$)
  If the disc you burned gets broken, you burn another one. (Cost $$+$$)
  
  If you have your movie on flash (Cost $$$$$)...you will want
  to use that media again, and not have the flash siting around.
  
  If you flash gets broken, you have to buy another one AND
  replace your movie (Cost $$$$$+$$$$$).
  
  So, all those flash card you currently have, you just pick them
  up and use them right? I don't think so.
  
  Basicly, use inexpensive media of good quality for long periods and rare ussage.
  Use Expensive media for short storage and often use.
  
  Of course, as soon as I finish writing this, 1 terabyte flash cards will be out...and all our problems will be solved!

  25.3.2008 21:18 #12

• Ludikhris

  Remember "Chief Scientist" does not mean they know anything about business or anything about the common market. Tech geeks always think the newest thing is the best thing. There is a huge difference between best technology and adopted technology. Obviously Sony knows business or they wouldn't be able to sell their goods for so much more than other brands. Discs are familiar to people, I think people will want to stick to them. On the other hand, there is not that much difference between DVD and Bluray to Joe Public, so who knows what will happen. I'm not sure if I like the idea of flash memory though. At least not for my collection of videos.

  25.3.2008 21:21 #13

• CaLiMaCk

  how much is MS paying ppl to spout this crap? are they that bitter? things like this arent gonna have mass market appeal or price anytime soon
  

  psn id: calimackin101
  
  

  25.3.2008 21:44 #14

• i1der

  thats dumb!
  i wont even argue why.

  25.3.2008 21:57 #15

• engage16

  its gonna be a long time before HD becomes the standard... cause a) SD DVD's look fine on a decent tv and b) not everyone can afford an hd tv and a blu ray player and a surround system etc...

  25.3.2008 22:32 #16

• MNPhoto

  Originally posted by Ludikhris: Remember "Chief Scientist" does not mean they know anything about business or anything about the common market. Tech geeks always think the newest thing is the best thing. There is a huge difference between best technology and adopted technology. Obviously Sony knows business or they wouldn't be able to sell their goods for so much more than other brands. Discs are familiar to people, I think people will want to stick to them. On the other hand, there is not that much difference between DVD and Bluray to Joe Public, so who knows what will happen. I'm not sure if I like the idea of flash memory though. At least not for my collection of videos.Absolutely there will be a lot of people that stick with discs and that is why SD DVD will be the dominant platform for at least another 5-10 years. The only way Blu Ray even has a chance at succeeding SD DVD is if they suddenly stop producing SD DVD's and force people to upgrade which is just simply never going to happen. SD DVD is a 27 billion dollar a year business and the studios are not going to risk their slice of that pie just to get people to move over to HD to buy the same films for a few bucks more.
  
  I don't think it has as much to do with what technologies are coming as much as it has to do with what technologies are already here, SD DVD, Super Upconversion, On Demand Etc.. Sure it was easy to get the first couple million people to adopt HD as those were all of the die hard home theater buffs but its going to be a whole hell of alot harder getting the next million and the million after that and so on. One of the most popular sized HDTV's being sold are 42" and at that size you have to sit closer than most people do in order to see a significant difference between these formats. I actually do Architectural photography for a living and alot of home theatre rooms or rooms that are used for watching movies have the seating too far back to be able to see any difference at all. I see couches all the time that are around 12-15 feet away from 50" or lower sets and again at those distances even someone with 20/20 or better vision wont be able to see a difference. Just think of all of the people that have 20/25 or 20/30 and don't wear glasses. This is just another thing going against the format and lets face it there are a lot of things going against HD being adopted buy any significant amount of the population.'
  
  Don't get me wrong I am not saying that Blu Ray is going to fail anytime soon, tho it just might, I am saying that it will remain a niche format and will never be adopted by any significant numbers, not with SD DVD, Upconvertion, Super Upconvertion, Apple TV's, XBox live Marketplace, PS3 Marketplace, iTunes Movie Store and many other options now available for consumers. SD DVD was such a massive improvement over VHS that it was bound to take over the market. Once Betamax was out of the way there was absolutely no competition against it at all and it was again a major breakthrough technology wise. That simply isn't the case with Blu Ray. Yes it is an improvement but compared to the difference of SD DVD and VHS, well it utterly pales in comparison and there are alot of devices and companies now competing against Blu Ray. It simply doesn't stand a chance but of course the Blu Ray supporters will never admit to this to save their lives.

  25.3.2008 23:00 #17

• cyprusrom

  Originally posted by MNPhoto: .....alot of home theatre rooms or rooms that are used for watching movies have the seating too far back to be able to see any difference at all. I see couches all the time that are around 12-15 feet away from 50" or lower sets and again at those distances even someone with 20/20 or better vision wont be able to see a difference..................
  Most people who are buying HD sets arent even doing so to get HD content, they are simply buying the HD sets because they are far smaller and far better looking than old school sets. I have a buddy of mine who works at best buy and he estimated that only 1 in 3 people who aare buying HD sets are actively seeking out HD content to go with that set. From my limited experience- not a professional, just observing friends, relatives, friends-of-friends...I agree. Many people buy the HD displays for looks, convenience, or just to be "trendy". Could care less about the Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, some don't even know that to actually get the HD content, just a TV capable of displaying HD content is not enough.

  25.3.2008 23:17 #18

• c1c

  I see how HD movies on a flash card makes sense. But there is always something about having a physical disc. You have the artwork, the box, etc. Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.

  25.3.2008 23:22 #19

• PeaInAPod

  Quote:Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.Its just a different medium. Instead of a bunch of 1's and 0's burnt onto a organic dye on a disc their "burned" onto a flash drive that will last MUCH longer.

  25.3.2008 23:26 #20

• atomicxl

  I hope this happens. Modern PCs can play this content and most HDTVs have a computer input on them. Not everyone is into it, but I think soon PCs will really start to infiltrate the living room. Also, the PS3 and Xbox 360 can play MP4 files with H.264 up to 1920x1080 and 5.1 AAC audio (PS3 only, 360 is limited to stereo) and WMV files up to the same resolution but 5.1 on both systems.
  
  There are ALOT of those already in homes across the world. Not only that, Windows Media Player (therefore most computers on the planet) support media sharing with these devices so you can store them on your PC and watch them on any tv connected to any device in your house. The technology is already there and waiting to be used.
  
  I'm ranting now, but I think this will change everything once people really realize the power of it and hardware companies start putting wireless networking in TVs, Stereos, etc. The ability to stream anything from any computer to anything in your house would be amazing. And the cool thing is that the back bone for it is already there... its just not being used to its real potential.

  25.3.2008 23:51 #21

• Gradical

  hahaha, it's so funny 128gb flash hahahaha, what do you even need a 128gb flash card??? that is DUMB!!, it can be just a specially designed flash card(and i say specially designed flash card since the MAFIA will for sure want some DRM on it, which of course we'll be cracked and the world will turn as always do) which somehow has a serial number, something like a mac adress, so you can go to a store, download it to your flash card, then get to your home, where you just insert the flash card, and it automaticaly downloads the content in it, then erase the memory of the flash disc, then you could have 2 options, 1)the device streams its content via wireless to any tv in the house, 2)you can only redownload it to the same memory flash, and to a registered player (maybe via internet i dont know), so why would you like to have 128gb in your pocket, so you can forget it and goes in to the dry cleanning??? when you can just have it in the hard drive, (which in case some of you dont know still have disc inside, so in a matter of speaking you still have a physical disk, just that this disk is protected and wont scrath, ok datta may corrupt, but with 500gb hard drives i am sure it might also have a backup system ;)

  26.3.2008 00:13 #22

• trainmstr

  hooray ... hell with discs. blueray and hddvd sux

  26.3.2008 01:53 #23

• cyprusrom

  Originally posted by c1c: _
  I see how HD movies on a flash card makes sense. But there is always something about having a physical disc. You have the artwork, the box, etc. Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.
  Ever watched "Equilibrium" (2002)(if not, I recommend it)? That's what is gonna be, no Blu-Ray, HD-DVD or anything. No movies, no XBOX, no PS3...no entertainment...
  So if you want save your precious HD stuff, start building that secret bunker! A tiny memory card will make sense, will be much easier to hide than a few hundred discs:~)!

  26.3.2008 02:12 #24

• Jaussi

  I couldn't disagree more. People will want to have an actual collection of movies on HD too, and what about those who don't understand anything about computers etc. For example, if you give my parents a flashdrive and a computer which can read it, they would have no idea how to use it, and I'm sure there are millions of people like them out there.
  And then there's people like me, I could use them with ease, but I still want to have my movies on discs, and be able to look at at shelf filled with movies, not a drawer filled with flashdrives. And I'm sure I'm not alone with this opinion.

  26.3.2008 02:32 #25

• jookycola

  But Jaussi, what if they make Flash reader devices that pretty much work like a dvd player?
  
  You put he flash card in and hit play just like a dvd player. I think they could sell this now. put a movie on a 2 gig flash card and put it in a case the size of old audio cassette tapes. There would still be plenty of room for art work and the smaller size would allow for more room on your shelves.
  Heck, it'd allow more room on store shelves too.
  
  The future of movie rentals/sales would mean a small store only a quater of the size of a current Blockbuster filled with a back room of servers stacked with terrabytes of hdd storage. All the customer sees is are counertop kiosks. They pick a movie and it burns to a flash drive in minutes. To rent another one you have to plug the flash drive in and "return" the file.
  obviously there are flaws in my idea but you get the idea. stores could save $$$ by not needing huge stores to display movies for rental.
  
  this is the future.

  26.3.2008 03:02 #26

• domie

  If flash drives , memory stick type stuff etc is such a more attractive option than the optical disc format - why has absolutely nothing replaced the optical compact audio disc in over 20 years of advances in technology ?
  As far as I know, it´s exactly the same as it was in 1986 and in that case we are only talking of replacing a disc with 700 mb of space so it has been possible for quite some time now.

  26.3.2008 03:23 #27

• mattkind

  Its always good to have a disk not a flash drive. In my country the internet speed is only 4 megabit so to download an HD movie is IMPOSIBLE. Its true that blu ray are a bit expensive but in my case i wait for some offer from www.play.com , like buy 3 and pay for 2

  26.3.2008 04:16 #28

• SDF_GR

  This will not happen for at least 10 years, company's need to sell players , TDK/Mitsubishi etc needs to sell disc's, Plextor,Nec,sony,Teac etc need to sell PC recorders/drives and Movie studios need to find a way to secure their content.
  Unfortunately for me cause i always hated disc's, i think that will take some years.

  26.3.2008 05:25 #29

• ematrix

  Originally posted by c1c: I see how HD movies on a flash card makes sense. But there is always something about having a physical disc. You have the artwork, the box, etc. Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.I'm also in favour of keeping movies in phisical media, and having them on flash cards is much more appealing to me than BR discs, indeed would be much easier to store and preserve them, and due to its compact size you could easily play them not only on your PC or on a dedicated stand alone player (if they make one eventually) but also on laptops and portable players. I also appreciate artwork and cases for the movies, but they can always use the same ones that Nintendo uses for their DS games.

  26.3.2008 06:45 #30

• ZippyDSM

  Full blown digi distro is not happening for at least 10 years, BR can take over for DVD if it takes root, so far its not taken root.

  26.3.2008 08:18 #31

• chubbyInc

  I posted about a year ago about movies on SD chips. Or other flash memory. No one thought it would happen, everyone went on about how it would be too expensive...
  
  About time, oh yeah and for those who argued against me on that.... Told you so!!!!
  
  Blu-Ray is a horrible format, I shake my head whenever I see someone buy a standalone player. At least with the PS3 you can play games.
  
  CDs, DVDs, Blu-Ray.... all crappy, scratch-able, anti-consumer friendly!

  26.3.2008 10:38 #32

• cyprusrom

  Originally posted by domie: If flash drives , memory stick type stuff etc is such a more attractive option than the optical disc format - why has absolutely nothing replaced the optical compact audio disc in over 20 years of advances in technology ?
  As far as I know, it´s exactly the same as it was in 1986 and in that case we are only talking of replacing a disc with 700 mb of space so it has been possible for quite some time now.Ever heard of Amazon's on line downloadable music store, Apple's iTunes...?

  26.3.2008 11:03 #33

• Gradical

  hahaha, the funny thing about this, is that at least at some degree this is already happening, or how would you call itunes? in which you download your movies to a portable device, funny thing about this is that the MAFIA is already suffering because of the control that Apple has over them (at least in pricing) and now, they are still so blind, that they are going to fall into apple's game once again, when they get all the movie market for themselves

  26.3.2008 11:16 #34

• cyprusrom

  Originally posted by Gradical: ...the MAFIA is already suffering because of the control that Apple has over them (at least in pricing) and now, they are still so blind, that they are going to fall into apple's game once again, when they get all the movie market for themselveshttp://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/13384.cfm

  26.3.2008 11:31 #35

• BludRayne

  Long live physical format! That's what shelf space is for.

  26.3.2008 11:57 #36

• maryjayne

  I dont plan on upgrading to Blu-ray until the dual format burners come down to about $150 in price.
  
  I currently have a PC hooked up to my HDTV and DVD upscaling plus streaming movies is good enough for me. I defidently dont see Blu-Ray as becoming the next format of choice until the prices drop drastically (maybe around christmas?).
  
  As for flash memory being the next big thing, I can see the potential if brick and mortar stores survive the digital download age. Currently a 16GB flash drive is about $35, which is about the price of a Blu-Ray disc. By the time brick and mortar stores would implement this type of rental I am sure the 32GB flash drive will be $35 and they can provide one with a membership to their store. I wouldnt mind getting a movie from a rental store on USB as long as it is still DVD quality (4GB-8GB).
  
  Of course to get this rental idea underway, rental stores would have to convince the public to get PCs or some other USB reading/playing device hooked up to their main TV and they will have to convince movie studios to provide digital copies of their movies on release dates. Good luck with both.

  26.3.2008 13:13 #37

• oappi

  like maryjayne said... even if usb would be easyer for stores it will never be mainstream because studios wont want to release their stuff on usb stick or anyother where it could be copied easyly.
  
  Maybe they could if someone sold usb sticks dedicaded to movies so you could only see movie files and not files that are used for copy protection. Stick space is still expensive compared to disc so would you really want to buy sticks if you want to keep the movie? There is no way in h*ll they would let you copy it in other medias thats for sure.

  26.3.2008 14:37 #38

• club42

  Quote:If flash drives , memory stick type stuff etc is such a more attractive option than the optical disc format - why has absolutely nothing replaced the optical compact audio disc in over 20 years of advances in technology ?They call it an ipod.

  26.3.2008 15:38 #39

• plutonash

  Originally posted by c1c: I see how HD movies on a flash card makes sense. But there is always something about having a physical disc. You have the artwork, the box, etc. Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.You could always include a high resolution .jpg or .png on the thumbdrive and just print it out. If its the case thats the problem you can get 200 slim jewel cases for like 20 bucks

  26.3.2008 17:01 #40

• goodswipe

  Originally posted by plutonash: Originally posted by c1c: I see how HD movies on a flash card makes sense. But there is always something about having a physical disc. You have the artwork, the box, etc. Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.You could always include a high resolution .jpg or .png on the thumbdrive and just print it out. If its the case thats the problem you can get 200 slim jewel cases for like 20 bucksNah, I can't see these big movie studios, allowing their products to be moved around on USB disks or any other storage medium.
  

  
  
  
  
  
  
  "look honey, it said goodswipe! oh wow, that's amazing."

  26.3.2008 17:05 #41

• plutonash

  RIAA tried the same sh1t with CDs and look at what happened. The consumers dedicate the market most of the time. I still have no idea how BD won as its inferior and more expense then HD-DVD

  26.3.2008 17:28 #42

• goodswipe

  Originally posted by plutonash: I still have no idea how BD won as its inferior and more expense then HD-DVDDude, are you trying to start WWIII? I don't want to read anymore silly discussions about this.
  

  
  
  
  
  
  
  "look honey, it said goodswipe! oh wow, that's amazing."

  26.3.2008 17:31 #43

• redchinee

  this is stupid. a 128gb card will cost a fortune even in the future. it will be a long while before the price goes down. the price of blu ray will fall soon. companies will not allow their movies to be stored on flash drive.

  26.3.2008 20:05 #44

• sgriesch

  Originally posted by c1c: I see how HD movies on a flash card makes sense. But there is always something about having a physical disc. You have the artwork, the box, etc. Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.Well, once your collection breaks 1000 DVD's, there becomes a space issue. I'd rather just have a file, pull it up on a computer, and play it on my TV. Computers have the capability to support HD quality. Also, downloading without the packaging and other cost makes it cheaper, and does not require much room to market the movie.

  26.3.2008 21:33 #45

• esco600

  I agree with her. though I understand wanting higher quality playback than DVD offers, I've always wondered to myself, "Why on another disc format?"

  26.3.2008 21:37 #46

• PantherM

  My vote was for flash media in the future.
  
  But I don't think studios are ready to release movies on usb sticks quite yet....

  26.3.2008 23:42 #47

• Cinnjerm

  The premise of this seems pretty asinine if you ask me. Aside the fact that flash cards with even 50GB of space don't exist yet, let alone 128, even if they did and they were cheap, I'm sure movie studios would never go this rought simply because the likelyhood their movies would be pirated goes up substantially. Moreover, unless they innovate a new USB standard in the near future, It wouldn't even be practical from a time standpoint. Can you imagine waiting 20 to 30 minutes or more waiting on a 20GB movie download to a USB2.0 drive, and don't even get me started on multiple movies.

  27.3.2008 02:40 #48

• Gradical

  mmm thats why i said you must own a special video player, some like the blurayplayer, its like an xbox, but this one is specially for video, it has a hard drive, so you can store and transmit via WIFI to any computer registered to you, or any tv registered to you even better, you just come home, download it to your new kick ass Flshplay the newest technology in the market, it streams all of your media to all the tvsregistered to you (wink wink, DRM will never die!, and it'll never be crack/safe, ha Irony), and you have the future. Does it sound crazy to you, as WIFI has hit such an extensive market, you have WIFI addapters for your xbox360, or better else, this service is available to your 360 its called xboxlive, mmmmmmm, i just ponder if anyone will ever plan something like this???, o and its not like sony is planning something like this on teirh sonystore for ps3 (wink, wink)

  27.3.2008 04:39 #49

• juankerr

  This is pure speculation from a scientist at the THX Labs.
  
  Now let a professional market analyst chime in:
  
  http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080326/20080326005743.html?.v=1
  http://www.strategyanalytics.net/default...tViewer&a0=3862
  
  Blu-ray Disc Devices: Global Market Forecast
  Strategy Analytics: As Format War Ends, 29 Million Blu-ray Homes Expected This Year
  
  Quote:The Blu-ray Disc victory in its recent format war with HD-DVD will propel this technology into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of 2008, according to the latest research published by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. According to, “Blu-ray Devices: Forecasting Sales and Ownership,” Sony’s PS3 games console will continue to drive the Blu-ray market until 2009, after which stand-alone Blu-ray players will become the dominant segment. By 2012 more than 132 million homes worldwide will own at least one Blu-ray device.
  
  “HD-DVD’s withdrawal leaves the way open for Blu-ray to become a major revenue earner for technology vendors and content owners alike,” says David Mercer, Principal Analyst. “The 265 million homes that will own an HDTV by 2012, and Hollywood’s need for a new growth engine, represent huge incentives for the industry to coordinate marketing activities and demonstrate unified support for the successor to DVD.”
  
  This Strategy Analytics report predicts that global sales of Blu-ray devices will reach 18.8 million units in 2008, including 4 million stand-alone players, 13 million consoles and nearly 2 million PCs. By 2012, annual sales of all BD devices will reach 57.4 million units. The largest market will be in Europe, with 26.4 million, followed by the US (22.6 million) and Japan (8.4 million).

  27.3.2008 08:46 #50

• ZeusAV

  People keep trying to equate digital music distribution to movies. An entire album worth of music adds up to only about 70MB. While HD movies will be in excess of 12-15GB each. As someone pointed out earlier, 50GB flash drives don't even exist yet and it will be a LONG time before 128GB ones come along.
  
  Face it, there will always be a market for physical media. 700MB CDs have been on the market for over 20yrs now and even with all of the iTunes store, illegal downloading, Amazon marketplace, etc. there is still a market for physical CDs. Some people just prefer to have the disc, artwork, and booklet. I personally still buy CDs for this reason (plus the crappy quality of MP3s doesn't impress me). There is no sense of ownership for a media file like a physical disc. SDDVD and Blu-Ray will be around for a long time.
  
  Another thing is the piracy issue. Putting movies on a USB drive is going to make it much harder for the movie industry to protect their movies from being easily pirated. They'll be reluctant to adopt this method of movie distribution. The time when all media will be distributed digitally is a very long way off into the future. I'm thinking more of 20-25yrs before something like this takes over.

  27.3.2008 09:30 #51

• jverhey

  Fanboys be happy with your disks because I will be happy when hard drives and cd/dvd/high def dvd'sare put to rest. I am presently waiting for my replacement dvdburner to come in and Just last year had to replace the burner on my laptop. Also 3 hard drives went down last year for me...... All my electronics with no moving parts seem to be working fine but I just keep replacing the ones that spin. What was it....... no one would want a tiny USB strip when they could have a big dvd/cd for the picture or what ever how about the LP to the CD/DVD was damn nice to see it get 20 percent the size kind of like the DVD to USB strip size change HMMMMMMMMMM.

  27.3.2008 10:59 #52

• LOCOENG

  Originally posted by trainmstr: hooray ... hell with discs. blueray and hddvd suxLame attempt at a flame put out...enjoy a vacation on me.
  

  Don't forget about your Buddies The rules ~ http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
  

  27.3.2008 11:34 #53

• glassd

  Will it be a flash back to the days of blowing on the Atari cartrage to get it to work or bending the prongs out on the card receiver to get it to make connection. I dont care how I get my HD as long as it is the best quality. For now and the future, Blu is fine with me. I see no benifit of a flash memory card at the moment. Some day we might have that Bat Man Jim Carry thing that you put to your head and streams the info to your brain.

  27.3.2008 12:07 #54

• A_Klingon

  Originally posted by club42: Quote:If flash drives , memory stick type stuff etc is such a more attractive option than the optical disc format - why has absolutely nothing replaced the optical compact audio disc in over 20 years of advances in technology ?They call it an ipod.You're comparing the sound quality of an ipod carrying crummy, compressed tracks, with that of compact disc audio (???)
  
  Even at 44.1 Khz sampling and 16-bit resolution, standard red-book audio makes ipod fall flat on it's .98c ear-bud headphones.

  27.3.2008 14:12 #55

• A_Klingon

  Originally posted by LOCOENG: Originally posted by trainmstr: hooray ... hell with discs. blueray and hddvd suxLame attempt at a flame put out...enjoy a vacation on me.<heh-heh> .... :-P
  
  Yeah, everyone needs a good vacation now and then.
  
  (Did you send him a first-class plane ticket, or was he required to sit in the baggage compartment?) :)

  27.3.2008 14:37 #56

• club42

  Quote:You're comparing the sound quality of an ipod carrying crummy, compressed tracks, with that of compact disc audio (???)
  No I agree that the audio is inferior I'm just mentioning how the general public can accept a switch to flash media if done right.

  27.3.2008 16:11 #57

• chubbyInc

  @ ZeusAV, most CDs are 350mb or more in size. 70mb is MP3 compressed 128 - 192 bitrate.
  
  
  A single-layer Blu-Ray disc has 27GB or over 2 hours of high def video.
  a double-layer Blu-Ray disc has 54GB or almost 5 hours of high def video.
  
  Where does this 128GB talk come from?
  
  all someone would need for normal 2 hour movies plus some features is a 32GB flash card

  27.3.2008 19:31 #58

• sgriesch

  Originally posted by chubbyInc:
  
  A single-layer Blu-Ray disc has 27GB or over 2 hours of high def video.
  a double-layer Blu-Ray disc has 54GB or almost 5 hours of high def video.
  
  Where does this 128GB talk come from?
  
  all someone would need for normal 2 hour movies plus some features is a 32GB flash cardThe 128 GB is so that you could purchase more than one movie at a time. When new releases come out, alot of times there are 2 or 3 movies the consumer would buy at once. Less limitations.

  27.3.2008 22:02 #59

• varnull

  At last an opinion from somebody with a vested interest in the future and not the now.. well done the man from the tech side of the film/media industry (never heard his name before today)
  
  It will be the "no moving parts" media that will have the big battle with dvd, not just another spinning disk format. I can remember that dvd-audio was supposed to spell the demise of cd-audio.. I can rememmber exactly the same kind of ranting and flaming all over forums 10 years ago about it, how dvd-audio was the new standard and would kill off cd's within 2 years blah blah blah... it didn't tho did it?
  
  Like I have been saying from day 1 of this argument.. both hd disk formats were doomed from the start.. 128GB flash drives will be here within 2 years.. at a price we can all afford...
  dammit.. I can remember when the largest pc hdd you could get was 350mb.. within 3 years 9 gig was standard.
  
  As for the film industry.. who is retarded enough to think that it is going to be 25 years before anybody sees this kind of thing??? Got news for you.. it's already happened in Japan and Malaysia where you can go into a music shop and get a film or album on your flash drive for a price. Places that look to the future realise the future is now, and will adopt new technology and consumer patterns as they arrive..
  
  Where were you 25 years ago?? I was sitting at a gui desktop computer in the basement of my fathers house, looking at minix and the future ;)
  

  
  
  Free open source software = made by end users who want an application to work....

  27.3.2008 22:15 #60

• sgriesch

  I thought that I read somewhere (after the format war had ended) that Toshiba was sinking a bunch of money into Flash Drives. Did anyone else read this article? The article had stated where Toshiba's money was used last year as far as developing new products.

  27.3.2008 22:24 #61

• juankerr

  Seems like THX is now backtracking on the scientist's comments. Their PR manager has issued a clarification:
  
  http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu...-dead-says-thx/
  
  Blu-ray is not dead, says THX
  
  Quote:Here’s what THX PR Manager Graham McKenna had to say,
  
  “THX recognizes the quality and benefits that the Blu-ray HD format brings to the home theater experience. We are dedicated to supporting Blu-ray with new THX technologies and other initiatives. At its very core, THX is about advancing the quality of the entertainment experience, whether that is on optical disc, downloads or other emerging media. I believe Mr. Fincham’s comments reflect that broader goal.”
  

  27.3.2008 23:17 #62

• A_Klingon

  Quote:Quote:You're comparing the sound quality of an ipod carrying crummy, compressed tracks, with that of compact disc audio (???)
  No I agree that the audio is inferior I'm just mentioning how the general public can accept a switch to flash media if done right.(Gotcha).
  
  And if the flash media were large enough, you wouldn't have to compress anything anyway.

  28.3.2008 08:00 #63

• eatsushi

  Originally posted by juankerr: Seems like THX is now backtracking on the scientist's comments. Their PR manager has issued a clarification:
  
  http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu...-dead-says-thx/
  
  Blu-ray is not dead, says THX
  
  Quote:Here’s what THX PR Manager Graham McKenna had to say,
  
  “THX recognizes the quality and benefits that the Blu-ray HD format brings to the home theater experience. We are dedicated to supporting Blu-ray with new THX technologies and other initiatives. At its very core, THX is about advancing the quality of the entertainment experience, whether that is on optical disc, downloads or other emerging media. I believe Mr. Fincham’s comments reflect that broader goal.”
  That was a quick retraction there from THX.
  
  I wonder if this backpedaling means they want to have their THX logo on BluRay hardware too.

  28.3.2008 11:54 #64

• MNPhoto

  Originally posted by juankerr: This is pure speculation from a scientist at the THX Labs.
  
  Now let a professional market analyst chime in:
  
  http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080326/20080326005743.html?.v=1
  http://www.strategyanalytics.net/default...tViewer&a0=3862
  
  Blu-ray Disc Devices: Global Market Forecast
  Strategy Analytics: As Format War Ends, 29 Million Blu-ray Homes Expected This Year
  
  Quote:The Blu-ray Disc victory in its recent format war with HD-DVD will propel this technology into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of 2008, according to the latest research published by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. According to, “Blu-ray Devices: Forecasting Sales and Ownership,” Sony’s PS3 games console will continue to drive the Blu-ray market until 2009, after which stand-alone Blu-ray players will become the dominant segment. By 2012 more than 132 million homes worldwide will own at least one Blu-ray device.
  
  “HD-DVD’s withdrawal leaves the way open for Blu-ray to become a major revenue earner for technology vendors and content owners alike,” says David Mercer, Principal Analyst. “The 265 million homes that will own an HDTV by 2012, and Hollywood’s need for a new growth engine, represent huge incentives for the industry to coordinate marketing activities and demonstrate unified support for the successor to DVD.”
  
  This Strategy Analytics report predicts that global sales of Blu-ray devices will reach 18.8 million units in 2008, including 4 million stand-alone players, 13 million consoles and nearly 2 million PCs. By 2012, annual sales of all BD devices will reach 57.4 million units. The largest market will be in Europe, with 26.4 million, followed by the US (22.6 million) and Japan (8.4 million). Of course Blu Ray is going to be in alot of homes by the end of 2008 because its inside the PS3 and everyone who buys a PS3 is buying a Blu Ray player. This says nothing of how successful Blu Ray is ultimately going to be. You see if this article was stating there would be 18 million stand alone players in people's homes by the end of 2008 then that would be an entirely different beast. This format war alone has shown us that a very large percentage of PS3 users dont even use the PS3 with Blu Ray movies and alot of the people that do use it only buy a movie here and there.
  
  I am sorry but the situation with Blu Ray and the PS3 is a very different situation and you cannot judge how successful its going to be based off of just how many PS3's have been sold. The fact that the writer of this article seems utterly oblivious to this tells me that he is either a professional in disguise and knows next to nothing about what he is talkingabout or he is simply being paid by Sony to pump up Blu Ray' s future outlook.
  
  Again just looking at the fact that there will be 10-20 million PS3's in people's homes in no way tells you how successful Blu Ray is going to be within those numbers and that is exactly what this article is trying to do. The fact that you were trying to use this so called Professionals opinion to overshadow the opinion of the THX guy just makes it that much more ridiculous. If anything the THX guys opinion seems even more intelligent compared to this guy trying to throw big numbers around. Ah I guess the less educated people will still eat it up especially those who support Blu Ray. Those of us who understand the market and know what is going on and what has been going on for the last 2 years, well its pretty easy seeing right through his big numbers.

  28.3.2008 17:39 #65

• juankerr

  Quote:If anything the THX guys opinion seems even more intelligent compared to this guy trying to throw big numbers around.Well THX has already issued a retraction of the scientist's statement and will probably have him bound and gagged the next time the press is around.
  
  http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu...-dead-says-thx/
  
  Suffice it to say that I'll take the word of a professional market analyst over that of a scientist in a lab coat when it comes to market trends and forecasts.
  
  If I have questions about THX specs and certification for my A/V gear then I'll gladly listen to the scientist.

  28.3.2008 18:00 #66

• error5

  Originally posted by juankerr: Well THX has already issued a retraction of the scientist's statement and will probably have him bound and gagged the next time the press is around.LOL! No shit. The thing is THX needs to foster a working relationship with CE's and studios that make BluRay.
  
  One BluRay release has already been THX certified - T2: Judgement Day. However, as some videophiles have pointed out, this usually means unwanted edge enhancement.
  
  In addition there have been a few BluuRay games whose audio sections have been THX certified - Resistance: Fall of Man, Warhawk, and Blast Factor.
  
  There was supposed to be Pioneer BluRay model that would be THX certified (the BDP-LX90) but I don't know what happened to it. Maybe eatsushi can enlighten us on this one.
  
  
  

  28.3.2008 18:44 #67

• voyager

  Well!i think that not necessary be a USB flash card! but the holographic card is a good idea;carrying movies like credict card in the pocket or in the wallet is a good idea.No more spinning mechanism.I have a lot of cd's and DVD's with a lot of valuable information those cd's and dvd's are damaged.

  30.3.2008 17:02 #68

• pmshah

  If the chip manufacturers come up with a process of making short run masked rom - probably the highest density storage form - manufacturing cheaper it could be a good medium for distribution with practically zero scope for damage.

  30.3.2008 22:39 #69

• MNPhoto

  Originally posted by juankerr: Quote:If anything the THX guys opinion seems even more intelligent compared to this guy trying to throw big numbers around.Well THX has already issued a retraction of the scientist's statement and will probably have him bound and gagged the next time the press is around.
  
  http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu...-dead-says-thx/
  
  Suffice it to say that I'll take the word of a professional market analyst over that of a scientist in a lab coat when it comes to market trends and forecasts.
  
  If I have questions about THX specs and certification for my A/V gear then I'll gladly listen to the scientist.Most of the time I would actually agree with you and would listen to a professional market analyst over some misc lab tech guy but in this particular case it is clear that this market analyst either has no clue what he is talking about or is simply being paid to say what he is saying. How someone can look at the overall situation with Blu Ray and forget to factor in the fact that roughly half of the people who buy a PS3 dont even use it with Blu ray movies is beyond me. Its probably the single most important statistic to look at when looking at the PS3's overall effect on the Blu Ray market.
  
  So again either this guy is just a total moron who has no clue what has been going on the last 2 years and has no idea that the PS3 isnt a stand alone Blu Ray player or his wallet just got alot fatter for saying what he did. Given Sony's shady past it really could be either one of those things. One thing is for sure and that is any prediction that is come to without the factoring in of this data with the PS3 belongs in one place only and that is the trash bin.

  31.3.2008 05:00 #70

• MNPhoto

  Originally posted by voyager: Well!i think that not necessary be a USB flash card! but the holographic card is a good idea;carrying movies like credict card in the pocket or in the wallet is a good idea.No more spinning mechanism.I have a lot of cd's and DVD's with a lot of valuable information those cd's and dvd's are damaged.Yeah I agree and I dont know why people are limiting the possibility to just flash cards. When people think of flash cards they think of the kind of cards that we currently have on the market and lets face it they are nt an ideal size or shape. Something like a holographic card in the shape of a credit card would be a much better size and shape. Just imagine how many of those suckers you could stick in a case that is the same size as a 100 CD or 200 CD case. You could easily hold them in your wallet and the no more spinning parts would extend the overall life of players considerably as moving parts are always the first parts to break down.
  
  Overall I think people are really being narrow minded by assuming that it has to be an optical disc. One thing is for sure an that is the days of a single format are gone and the future will be all about options. Do you want SD DVD, Blu Ray, On Demand, Portable files for cell phones, iPods and other portable devices, AppleTV's, Xbox360 Marketplace, PS3 marketplace, Slingboxes, TV over your computer Etc... There may very well always be an optical disc option but that doesnt for a minute mean that there will not be room for other technologies as well. Again the future is going to be all about options and I for one think both the flash card and holographic idea are both very possible in the near future.
  
  I personally think that you will see a huge market open up for lesser quality portable movie files very similar to what we saw happen with Music and the iTunes situation. Instead of going with much higher quality audio like SACD's, we saw people moving to a quality even below that of CD's simply because of the portability and ease of downloading. I think to some extent we will see the same thing with movies. As portable movie devices get better and better people will want the ability to have thier movie collection with them at all times just like they can do with thier entire music collection with an iPod.
  Who knows the flash and holographic technology may be what is used in this market.
  
  I really think that a large percentage of the population, especially the younger generation, are simply far more interested in portability then they are in quality. Don't get me wrong it still has to be good quality, like the iTunes music quality, but once you reach that level of quality that they find acceptable I think portability becomes a much bigger issue with a lot of them then getting even higher quality files.

  31.3.2008 05:25 #71

• eatsushi

  Spinning optical discs aren't done yet. How about 15 Terabytes on a DVD sized platter using blue-laser technology:
  
  http://www.call-recall.com/news.html#anchor12
  
  Portability is a valid concept but we're talking about the emerging home theater market where high-def displays and sources (not to mention surround sound) are the key elements.

  31.3.2008 10:49 #72