DreamWorks Animation CEO predicts neither HD format will 'win'

DreamWorks Animation CEO predicts neither HD format will 'win'
DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg was asked at a Bank of America conference in New York on Wednesday, which high-definition DVD format he expected to win the format war. His answer was unusual among the top movie industry executives; "neither". "Blu-Ray and HD DVD are a niche business. They're not going to become the next platform," he said.

He continued: "I think for the general consumer, there is not a big enough delta between the standard DVD in terms of where it is today and the next generation." DreamWorks distributor Paramount does release movies in both Blu-Ray and HD DVD, but it hasn't distributed popular animated works on either format yet.



Instead, Katzenberg is more optimistic about the promise that digital distribution offers, calling it "staggering". He did admit however that move downloaders, at least, won't spark industry growth for some time.

Source:
Variety

Written by: James Delahunty @ 1 Apr 2007 17:48
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  • 32 comments

  • Auslander

    holy crap...someone in the biz with a perspective that actually doesn't seem insane. this is awesome.

    1.4.2007 18:35 #1

  • Pop_Smith

    I second that my furry friend.

    I have noticed how some movies, a good amount actually, are being released on both formats. I think that is the best way to go as I don't see either format winning in the long haul, if ever.

    1.4.2007 18:50 #2

  • Nephilim

    Quote:"Blu-Ray and HD DVD are a niche business. They're not going to become the next platform," Check the forums and that's what I've been saying all along.

    All the idiots had to do is look how far SACD and DVD-Audio went to see exactly what'll happen to their "next gen high definition" formats. Both audio formats are superior to CD's but they're heavily DRM's and require their own specific players (sound familiar?) and went no further than a niche market. Lower definition CD's are still king and so it will be with DVD's no matter how many consoles play them. Price beats quality every time when it comes to the masses. Ask WalMart.

    1.4.2007 19:15 #3

  • Paladore

    i find unless they quickly become like dvd players, cheap affordable by all, and dvds are going for 15-20 bucks on new releases in canada now they wont survive. HD and blu ray are nice but they are only better quality dvd's. DVD compaired to VHS was far superior because of scene selection, extras and no rewinding, neither blu ray or HD DVD have anything more to offer than better quality.

    1.4.2007 22:44 #4

  • vietorisz

    I agree with this Jeffrey man. A huge quality difference was switching from VHS to DVD. But HD and Blu is nothing more than storage capacity NOT quality. I remember not so long ago about the +/- format war and then soon the DL appeared and nothing changed. The DVD still stayed firmly no matter what...

    2.4.2007 02:15 #5

  • A_Klingon

    You make a good analogy, Nephilim, comparing this to hi-def music discs (SACD & DVD-Audio).

    I bought a "universal" dvd player which handles both formats, and yet both camps make very few commercial discs available. At this late stage in the game, I fully expect they will both remain lonely, niche formats. The Mass Market Demand for these high-resolution audio discs just wasn't there. To be honest, I don't know why they continue to sell what few selections they DO release.

    So have we now just had a pre-glimpse into the *real* future of Blu-Ray/HD-DVD? At least, for commercial, retail releases?

    Not everyone needs or wants, say, 1080p resolution on a massive wall screen in, say, their bedroom or rec room, even if they *could* afford it. The cash outlay needed to set oneself up to take advantage of even *some* of the benefits of either of these hi-def formats, is staggering, especially if you are starting from scratch.

    I don't need to be able to count the individual number of pores in an actor's face, or hear their breathless whispers in hi-def 5.1 surround sound to enjoy a good movie.

    The competition between these two formats is killing the whole thing off IMHO. As so, certainly is the mind-numbing DRM baggage accompanying each format. I believe there is FAR too much technology wrapped up into each format for it's own good. No wonder Joe Public is not buying into this mess - who could blame them?

    I think Blu-ray will prevail for PC data storage (burners), but other than that ...... I am very leery.

    But who knows? In 2010, all current, analog TV broadcasting is supposed to become obsolete - everything will be DIGITALLY broadcast from that date forward. Present analog tv sets will only be useable with an adaptor box, SO ..... whenever we see *only* digital tv sets (hi-def or otherwise) in, say, our local Walmarts and Best Buy stores, will Blu-ray and/or HD-DVD really matter to the masses.

    And even then, "regular" DVD may be plenty enough for most people.

    (My .02c).

    2.4.2007 02:30 #6

  • BobbyBlu

    I think people are taking this Blu-ray & HD-DVD thing wrong neither is here to take over the world its just a enhancement to DVD thats all.With growing need everyday in this world for more space both can give you this option it don't have to be the everyday customer it could be in the Business world also.There is a fact that everyday the need for more space grows..Look at home PC for EX:people said that 40gig was more than enough look now most PC come with 250gig HD standard today.Most people are not going to stay in the cave men days or live in the past its the way of the world consumer needs grows.

    2.4.2007 02:45 #7

  • h8xor

    Problem is the cost to change over to the Next gen, not only do I have to buy a next gen player, I would also have to get an HD TV to make it worth my while. That would put me out about 1200 right there, and that is alot of fun money to shell out.

    2.4.2007 03:06 #8

  • BobbyBlu

    Originally posted by h8xor:Problem is the cost to change over to the Next gen, not only do I have to buy a next gen player, I would also have to get an HD TV to make it worth my while. That would put me out about 1200 right there, and that is alot of fun money to shell out.I totally agree with you that it do cost alot but look at CD & DVD beginning life cycle they was very high also.Its took DVD three year before people actual start buying because the price was to high like both Blu-ray & HD-DVD are now.But the thing i think thats going to help Blu-ray or HD-DVD is that both are in a format war which means both are driving down cost really fast.DVD took so long because it didn't really have anything competing against it & was forced because VHS has run it course.

    2.4.2007 03:39 #9

  • error5

    DVD and Laser Disc actually started out as "niche products" with high cost and limited movie releases. (My Dad's first DVD player was $1000 and actually had no DTS, no Progressive scan, and couldn't handle anamorphic or dual layer.) They were both largely ignored by the masses. Instead of "DVD vs VHS" it was "DVD vs Laser Disc" at first. When DVD won that niche war then it took on VHS and it actually took at least 5 years before VHS was eventually replaced as the mainstream format.

    2.4.2007 03:55 #10

  • eatsushi

    Quote:All the idiots had to do is look how far SACD and DVD-Audio went to see exactly what'll happen to their "next gen high definition" formats. Both audio formats are superior to CD's but they're heavily DRM's and require their own specific players (sound familiar?) and went no further than a niche market. I understand your point of view Nephilim. However, there are two major differences that I see between SACD vs DVD-A and BD vs HD DVD.

    1. Studio support. The HD video formats have the backing of every major movie studio and a few of the smaller studios as well. This is not the case with high res audio. Very little activity or excitement if any is generated by the recording companies releasing on DVD-A and SACD. On the other hand, every major new release comes out or is scheduled to come out on one or both HD video formats. Each major new release is eagerly anticipated and you see a lot of activity on major online sellers like amazon. This doesn't happen with SACD or DVD-A.

    2. Both HD video formats have already been cracked and I'm predicting that whatever BluRay comes up with in the future will also be circumvented. Anything that's worth cracking is IMO worthy of everyone's attention. BluRay burners are now available and HD DVD burners are coming out soon. Sure inital costs may be high but I'd point out that my dad's first DVD recorder was a $2000 Panasonic which wasn't even Progressive scan. AFAIK a way to burn SACD's will never be made available to the general public and frankly no one cares if SACD or DVD-Audio are cracked or not. On the other hand AnyDVD-HD and DVDFab-HD are big newsmakers.

    The war between SACD and DVD-Audio is a minor border skirmish. The war between HD DVD and BluRay is World War II.

    Quote:DVD and Laser Disc actually started out as "niche products" with high cost and limited movie releases. Exactly right. Nine or ten years ago we would be dismissing DVD and LD as niche products with no mass appeal. Actually Laser Disc was the preferred format for early adopters and it took some time for DVD to overcome LD. My dad still has his $1000 Pioneer Elite LD player but he was gracious in accepting that it has gone the way of the dodo and gladly moved on to DVD.

    2.4.2007 06:54 #11

  • Dela

    Nobody can even reference the DVD "craze" for either Blu-ray or HD DVD because, as already mentioned, the transition from a bulky lower quality VHS tape to a DVD disc that will retain quality as long as you store it right and handle it right was actually something "worth" doing for many consumers. Also DVDs offered nice interactive features that at the time just blew everyone away..... now are taken for granted and seen as maybe primitive by many of us ;-)

    Also, there's a psychological effect at work here. Even if you didn't know a thing about DVD resolution, MPEG-2, AC3 or DTS Audio or "anything" to do with DVD-Video structure.... you still saw the benefit of having your movie on a CD sized disc in comparison to a bulky VHS tape. And I can assure you that most people still know nothing about the technical side of DVD or couldn't tell you what resolution Full D1 provides or even the difference between standard definition and high definition.

    Now, both camps are asking users to switch from one disc to another disc and most have no idea why. They say "oh better quality, better interactive features" - but you know what, I'm willing to bet that most people find DVD just fine for their needs. And again, if you don't have a HDTV in the first place, you are really just looking at better interactive features from both and better video compression than MPEG-2 etc.

    The thing is, studios actually do "believe" that these formats will fill in the gaps as DVD sales continue to slow down - that somehow, everyone and his brother will decide to completely replace their classic DVD titles with HD DVD or Blu-ray discs.... Simply...not going to happen. I have 100s of DVDs and do you think that there's more than 20 of them I would characterize as "needing 1080p"? No F***ing way.

    And many of those titles that i DO want in HD, I'd settle for 720p and AVC or VC-1 video, so bring on 3X DVD for that because I won't pay for a blue laser disc for 720p. Also, let's not forget that Blu-ray and HD DVD are coming along as two closed formats due to DRM - physical distribution again.... all you will be able to do is download "additional" content... which I think is poor offering to the Internet world. Jeffrey Katzenberg probably sees, unlike many names in Hollywood, that the Internet and evolution of legit download services and yes.... piracy.... has "completely" changed the landscape for "many" people. Because of P2P, the amount of people who'd be interested in "Apple TV" or a likewise device has exploded. Imagine having gigantic collection of movies and tv shows stored on HDDs and you can just stream them to any TV, it's a better option than a disc I think but then you also have to provide a way for a person to create a physical copy if they want one...... say hello to DVD burners, HD DVD burners and Blu-ray burners.

    I think a lot of people will agree with me if I choose the freeware Xbox Media Center (XBMC) as an example. Why can't multi-billion corporations compete with free??? is it because consumers are just completely cheap? maybe! but a large LARGE part of it is definitely the closed minded, over-protective approach of Hollywood to stick to a closed physical product and call it "next gen" just to retain control of distribution.

    </rant> ;-)

    2.4.2007 07:25 #12

  • dRD

    IMO, piracy has always had huge impact on things like this and I'm betting that it'll shape this "war" as well. Originally I was ready to bet my money on Blu-ray, simply due logistics (PS3 delivers instant boost to Blu-ray market), but since I found out that HD DVD's specs have been made extremely pirate friendly, I'm willing to change the horse I'm betting.

    What I mean by "pirate friendly", is the fact that now we have a standardized way to put AVC / H.264 high-def content on a good olde DVDR disc and have a set of players that are capable of playing them, as their standard defines it. All this refers to this "3X DVD" standard, i.e. HD DVD players play happily stuff that is on HD DVD format, even tho its stored on a regular DVDR disc.

    I'm curious to see when we'll see first one-click apps that will take a HD DVD or Blu-ray disc, take out its video, re-encode it slightly and burn it to a blank DVDR in high-def using HD DVD standard.

    Apart from that, Mr. Katzenberg got it right. When first service pops up that delivers high def movies via Net to your standardized HTPC device on a service that has a monthly flat fee for "all you can eat" (==you can choose unlimited number of movies from a collection that contains every single movie ever made in the world) without too restrictive DRM sceheme (bit like iTunes -- it has DRM scheme, but the ease of use and relatively loose restrictions offset that for most people). Add a possibility to select subtitles for your own language (whether its Finnish, Hebrew or Swahili) and dubbing if you prefer so and make all the movies be available on the very same day they hit the movie theatres. And yes, IMO, that will be the day when optical media as a purchase model for movies will cease to exist.

    2.4.2007 07:40 #13

  • eatsushi

    Originally posted by dRD:IMO, piracy has always had huge impact on things like this and I'm betting that it'll shape this "war" as well. Exactly my point. DVD really took off once it became possible to back up and later reasonably cheap enough to back up. Once the HD burners and HD media start to drop in price then I think you'll see these formats go from a niche market to the mainstream. Thanks to AnyDVD HD and DVDFab HD.

    Quote:And many of those titles that i DO want in HD, I'd settle for 720p and AVC or VC-1 video, so bring on 3X DVD for that because I won't pay for a blue laser disc for 720p. 3X DVD uses HD-DVD's UDF 2.5 file system so you still need an HD-DVD player to play 3X DVD discs or at least an XBox 360/Add0n. I think 3X DVD's success hinges on the market acceptance of HD DVD as a whole because I see it as "HD-DVD Lite." If HD-DVD fails I don't see 3X DVD succeeding behind it.

    2.4.2007 08:07 #14

  • Dela

    Quote:3X DVD uses HD-DVD's UDF 2.5 file system so you still need an HD-DVD player to play 3X DVD discs or at least an XBox 360. I think 3X DVD's success hinges on the market acceptance of HD DVD as a whole because I see it as "HD-DVD Lite." If HD-DVD fails I don't see 3X DVD succeeding behind it.Actually 3X DVD is considered by many as a weapon that could be used to "win" the war, basically because the discs will be cheaper to manufacture, yet using AVC, it still offers high definition material to consumers and lower rates to produce it means that 3X DVD would be the perfect format for older titles in 720p (you know, those movies that just don't benefit from 1080p) and should be easily able to compete with DVD prices.

    Of course it all depends on how it utilized by studios and the HD DVD group, if they were serious about mounting a challenge right now they'd convince studios to release truck loads of older titles on 3X DVD and get them into Wal-Mart and all other big retailers to compete against the DVD versions. People with HD DVD player or Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on might choose a 720p version of a movie using a more advanced codec then MPEG-2 over an SD DVD version (MPEG-2) of the movie at a similar price - just my 2 cents.

    Oh, and I think what dRD meant about 3X DVD and piracy is that, just the fact that you *could* create a HD DVD compilation on a red-laser DVD disc is a step in the right direction for pirates compared to Blu-ray for example. Then there is also the fact that DVD-R trading is rampant amongst Internet pirates so technically it's a small step (depending on player support and technicalities) to trade 3X DVD.

    I think, what will be interesting though for the piracy scene, is when pirates find a market in ripping Blu-ray exclusive titles and selling them on HD DVD for those with no Blu-ray player, it will happen someday and cutting out the BD-J interactive features, it probably won't be that hard.

    2.4.2007 10:58 #15

  • eatsushi

    Quote:Actually 3X DVD is considered by many as a weapon that could be used to "win" the war, basically because the discs will be cheaper to manufacture, yet using AVC, it still offers high definition material to consumers and lower rates to produce it means that 3X DVD would be the perfect format for older titles in 720p (you know, those movies that just don't benefit from 1080p) and should be easily able to compete with DVD prices. I agree with you there 100%. Most articles and forums have said that 3X DVD has the potential to give HD DVD the extra weight it needs in the format war and well negate BluRay's superior studio support.

    Quote:Oh, and I think what dRD meant about 3X DVD and piracy is that, just the fact that you *could* create a HD DVD compilation on a red-laser DVD disc is a step in the right direction for pirates compared to Blu-ray for example. Yes, I realize that now after re-reading dRD's post. Thanks for pointing that out. Still I think that once it becomes easier and cheaper to rip, author and burn in either HD format it will be difficult to ignore them. Like I said in my earlier post - anything that's worth cracking is worthy of everyone's attention.

    Quote:I think, what will be interesting though for the piracy scene, is when pirates find a market in ripping Blu-ray exclusive titles and selling them on HD DVD for those with no Blu-ray player, it will happen someday and cutting out the BD-J interactive features, it probably won't be that hard.We've actually been authoring and burning HD material to red laser DVD's for some time now (for HD-DVD playback):

    http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/487810

    The thing we need to figure out is how to convert ripped material to something that can fit into red laser DVD's. Something with DVDShrink functionality maybe and using AVC or VC1 encoding.

    2.4.2007 11:24 #16

  • Dela

    Quote:The thing we need to figure out is how to convert ripped material to something that can fit into red laser DVD's. Something with DVDShrink functionality maybe and using AVC or VC1 encoding.You mean ripped from HD DVD disc itself? I'm sure with Demuxing the video it can be re-encoded to AVC (let's just say the source is VC-1) to fit, altho I guess some changes would have to be made to resolution to fit and look OK. So what would be the bets idea for manual route, x264?? Also, what of the Dolby Digital Plus audio...

    2.4.2007 12:29 #17

  • eatsushi

    Quote:You mean ripped from HD DVD disc itself? I'm sure with Demuxing the video it can be re-encoded to AVC (let's just say the source is VC-1) to fit, altho I guess some changes would have to be made to resolution to fit and look OK. So what would be the bets idea for manual route, x264?? Also, what of the Dolby Digital Plus audio...I'm sure someone will come up with a simple one-click solution sooner rather than later.

    2.4.2007 13:37 #18

  • error5

    I made the point earlier that DVD started out as a "niche format."

    Here's some numbers that support that assertion:

    http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/news/sho...t_Milestone/544

    The first title to ship 100,000 units:

    DVD - "Air Force One"
    >Released 11 months after the launch of the DVD format
    >Took 9 - 11 months on the market to reach 100,000 shipped

    BluRay - "Casino Royale"
    >Released 9 months after the launch of the BluRay format
    >Took only 2 weeks on the market to reach 100,000 shipped

    2.4.2007 14:56 #19

  • Nephilim

    One major difference between the launch of DVD and these new formats is that with DVD you could plug the player into any TV that had the inputs which was basically all them since by that time VCR's were so common that manufacturers made the inputs standard on almost all models. With the new formats your TV has to support HDCP which means there's a significant consumer base using unsupported TV's and they're not about to go out and buy a new one just to play HD discs.

    2.4.2007 15:45 #20

  • error5

    Originally posted by Nephilim: With the new formats your TV has to support HDCP which means there's a significant consumer base using unsupported TV's and they're not about to go out and buy a new one just to play HD discs.I would respectfully disagree with this Neph. You can still enjoy both formats on non-HDCP sets using component. Granted that it's not full 1080p but you can still have 1080i or 720p resolution thru component on older HDTV's (which are most likely 720p or 1080i anyway). The reason for this is no one wants to be the first to implement ICT downconversion for analog connections. Plus, if you use a PC drive for playback and if you have AnyDVD-HD, the HDCP requirement is eliminated for both the video card and the display.

    Even with this constraint, sales figures still show that the acceptance of both HD formats is happening at a faster rate than what DVD went through in its first few years.

    2.4.2007 16:06 #21

  • ZippyDSM

    My take on it is performance,price,ease of use,availably and indutry standerizing.

    performance:not great enough
    Price: to costly
    ease of use:component,HDMI, digital audio WTF? I jsut plug it in right?...

    availably:its not everywhere.

    indutry standerizing:without it being the format of choice for the industry people wont buy it.

    HDVD/BR are to busy fighting themselves emerging digital distro and DVD ,its going to take 5 years for BR/HDVD to win over the other then they have to fight DVD/dig distro its a uphill battle all the way.

    2.4.2007 16:23 #22

  • error5

    Originally posted by ZIppyDSM:its going to take 5 years for BR/HDVD to win over the other then they have to fight DVD/dig distro its a uphill battle all the way.That's exactly what DVD did when it first started. It went up against Laser Disc first to capture the videophile market. Then when it won that war it went against VHS and it took at least 5 - 6 years from launch for it to surpass VHS in popularity.

    2.4.2007 16:44 #23

  • ZippyDSM

    error5

    well LD has issues from bad pressing to iffy hardware to cost it was almsot failed from the start if Sony pressed their codecs onto BR I would say its the same but they have let that go and both BR and HDVD are nearly even.



    FIGHT THE M.A.F.I.A.A.

    2.4.2007 16:50 #24

  • Nephilim

    Quote:I would respectfully disagree with this Neph. You can still enjoy both formats on non-HDCP sets using component. Granted that it's not full 1080pI'm aware of that but I can't imagine there'd be very many folks willing to lay out the cash for an HD player and pay the premium for HD movies when they can't enjoy the benefits. It doesn't make any sense.

    Quote:Then when it won that war it went against VHS and it took at least 5 - 6 years from launch for it to surpass VHS in popularity.I'd venture to say a large part of that was due to the fact that the bulk of consumers didn't want to buy their whole collection over again. DVD's eventually won out because they were incredibly more convenient and much more durable. The HD formats offer neither.

    What it boils down to is 80% or more of the consumer base is perfectly happy with the cheap and easy DVD and could give a rat crap about the expense and hassle of migrating to HD for a bit better picture. Cheap and easy are the absolute gods of our society so until the HD formats become cheap and easy enough to get 80 out of 100 average consumers to switch they'll remain a niche market. Just about everyone I know didn't switch to DVDs until VHS production withered out and their existing tapes wore out. I can't see DVD production coming even close to halting ten years from now because DVDs don't wear out like VHS did.



    My killer sig came courtesy of bb "El Jefe" mayo.
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    3.4.2007 07:30 #25

  • eatsushi

    Quote:I'm aware of that but I can't imagine there'd be very many folks willing to lay out the cash for an HD player and pay the premium for HD movies when they can't enjoy the benefits. It doesn't make any sense.I still enjoy both formats on my 720p (non-1080p) projector. People with 720p or 1080i displays still can benefit from the best HD source available - even better than broadcast HD. Also, the entry-level and 1st gen HD-DVD players don't even output 1080p - they're all 1080i.

    Quote:Cheap and easy are the absolute gods of our society so until the HD formats become cheap and easy enough to get 80 out of 100 average consumers to switch they'll remain a niche market. I agree with you there. Now if you look at the price trends especially for HD-DVD you'll see hardware prices tumbling at a faster rate in the first year than what we saw with DVD hardware. The 1st gen models are going for less than $300 and the entry level 2nd gens are $350 to $400. Don't forget the low-cost Chinese players that are slated to come out later this year. Expect their price points to be in the sub $300 region. The next thing will be price drops for burners and media. Once they get to an acceptable level and Slysoft keeps on its toes then you'll see a boom in demand just like DVD. Just look at the posts here in AD. A lot of people are waiting for price drops on HD burners and media. Once that happens who knows?

    Like we said before, DVD was also once a "niche product." Look at where it is now.

    3.4.2007 07:39 #26

  • dRD

    I agree with error5 on the fact that HD transition is happening at faster rate than DVD adoption did and I'm quite certain that one aspect playing big part in it is the backwards compatibility with the players -- meaning that both, Blu-ray and HD DVD players can happily play DVD discs, whereas in 90s when people adopted DVD players, those obviously couldn't play back VHS tapes :-)

    Now that player prices have already dropped to a range where "wanna-be-high-end-but-cant-really-afford-it" portion of population is within the price range, I'm quite certain that homes that have one DVD player will buy HD player as their next "DVD player". If you look around in 2-3 years time, I'm actually quite certain that thousands of homes don't even know they have "HD player", but instead think that they have "new DVD player that has output that looks nicer on our plasma" :-) This will happen when the HD player prices drop below, say $200, and they go their local CE store and simply let the sales clerk to sell them a new DVD player, now that family's teenagers simply hijacked the DVD player from living room to their own room/flat. And while they think they buy "high quality DVD player" they might actually have bought HD DVD or Blu-ray player -- as long as it plays those CD-looking-thingies that have movies on them, they're happy.

    This process can be smoothed greatly by offering all movies on hybrid discs, so that Joe Sixpack, who has bought this sub-$250 player to him, buys Hobbit in 2009, buys it in hybrid disc (without knowing its a hybrid disc, obviously -- this means that non-hybrid discs will have to be eliminated from the market rapidly). So, if Joe has a high def player, it'll play in high def, but if Joe watches the same movie in bedroom, where he moved his old DVD player a year ago, it'll play there too, just in standard def.

    3.4.2007 23:21 #27

  • ZippyDSM

    Nephilim
    I have a question O'great one
    I here BR is made with ridges/bumps to help prevent scratching dose HDVD or BR really offer anything new and worth whole in disc protection?

    3.4.2007 23:37 #28

  • eatsushi

    Originally posted by dRD:I agree with error5 on the fact that HD transition is happening at faster rate than DVD adoption did and I'm quite certain that one aspect playing big part in it is the backwards compatibility with the players Excellent point. Thanks for emphasizing the value of backward compatibility that's in the new HD players. Also worth pointing out is the excellent upconverting ability of these players especially the Toshibas. Some users are saying that even if HD-DVD loses this war they still won't be disappointed because they'll still have one heck of an upconverting machine for their DVD's.

    Quote:Now that player prices have already dropped to a range where "wanna-be-high-end-but-cant-really-afford-it" portion of population is within the price range, I'm quite certain that homes that have one DVD player will buy HD player as their next "DVD player".Couple with this the continued price drops in HDTV sets. Even the 1080p models are seeing significant price drops as newer models come in. Granted software prices are still quite high (except on amazon) I still think these will also undergo price drops and regular weekly specials from retailers.

    I think this is where the format war has come into play. If there was only one HD format available I don't think that prices would be dropping as fast as they have been. I also think that for HD to come out of niche status into the mainstream this so-called war has to be resolved reasonably for both formats and in a manner that causes the least confusion for the consumer.

    Someone brought up the point that HD downloads would also affect the adoption of HD on disc. I think that the current infrastructure may not be able to support the massive HD traffic that's needed to overcome disc based HD formats. Plus broadband availability is still limited in some areas even here in the US.

    Quote:This process can be smoothed greatly by offering all movies on hybrid discs, so that Joe Sixpack, who has bought this sub-$250 player to him, buys Hobbit in 2009, buys it in hybrid disc (without knowing its a hybrid disc, obviously -- this means that non-hybrid discs will have to be eliminated from the market rapidly). Another good point. I used to be leery about combo discs (or as you call them "hybrids") but I've changed my opinion about them as I now see their value in the transition for SD to HD. It's also worth pointing out that Universal has announced that 90 percent of their releases this year will be combos. I think Warner also has a similar plan.

    Quote:dose HDVD or BR really offer anything new and worth whole in disc protection? I'd like to comment on this if I may. The disc replication facilities of Sony and Panasonic each have their own proprietary hard coating technology that protects the data layer. TDK has also developed a clear polymer scratch-resistant coating for its blank BD media called Durabis. Last year Verbatim also annnounced their own hard coat Scratch Guard technology for their blank media.

    AFAIK HD-DVD does not have hard coating as the data layer is 0.6mm from the surface - same as regular DVD.

    I've rented discs from Netflix on both formats and even with minor scratches and smudges they've all played fine.

    4.4.2007 06:00 #29

  • Nephilim

    Quote:I here BR is made with ridges/bumps to help prevent scratching dose HDVD or BR really offer anything new and worth whole in disc protection?You know Zippy, I honestly couldn't tell you. I haven't heard on read anything on that. Knowing the media companies they'd prefer you to replace expensive scratched discs rather than give you a durable product :P

    eatsushi,

    You make a hell of an argument that has alot of merit! I've never been accused of being an optimist so that could explain my pragmatic view of it all. My angle is I know alot of folks from all walks of life and see them all as a microcosm of the consumer market as a whole. When I consider all these varied folks I can only think of two that might consider moving to the HD formats anytime in the forseeable future. All the folks I know are in no way a 100% predictor of HD sales but they represent an extremely varied cross section of people that can't be denied either.

    4.4.2007 09:44 #30

  • animefan

    Piracy is good for business.

    7.4.2007 14:35 #31

  • ZippyDSM

    Nephilim

    Ah as always they ignore the real issue and flame a scape goat of their choseing so they can have their cake and eat it to.

    7.4.2007 14:43 #32

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